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Vibe Check: Momentum Building: CoinDesk Indices' Todd Groth
Periodic observations and market musings from Todd Groth, Head of Research, CoinDesk Indices.
Updated Mar 8, 2024, 9:20 p.m. Published Feb 9, 2024, 2:00 p.m.
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Regaining Momentum.
We’ve broken past the 1,700 level on the CoinDesk 20 Index as the stronger price trends across smart contracts broadened across the market on Feb. 7. This caused both bitcoin and ether Trend Indicators - a tool created by CoinDesk subsidiary CoinDesk Indices, to help investors determine where the price are going - to register “Significant Uptrend” again after a short hiatus in “Neutral” and “Uptrend” value.
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The market was also supported by net inflows into crypto-linked products last week, with over $700 million flowing into the market, primarily focused on bitcoin linked products.
Its worth noting the rotation we’re seeing between the legacy Grayscale product and newer and cheaper iShares and Fidelity's exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which came online weeks ago. Ex-GBTC, new Bitcoin ETF product holdings now surpass the MicroStrategy treasury, accounting for 192k of bitcoin (about 1% of all future supply).
On the U.S. Dollar front (DXY), the recent increase in U.S. interest rates have helped move USD higher, but the January reversal appears to be stalling as the Fed’s campaign of hawkish rhetoric begins to subside and the market moves out expected interest rate cuts to start sometime into Q2 of this year.
Need more color on what's happening in the markets? Check out these stories:
- Bitcoin Crosses $46K as Year of 'Long' Begins, Easing ETF Sell-Off: Over the next few days, East Asia will celebrate the start of the year of the dragon, which is considered to be one of the luckiest and most prosperous animals in the Chinese Zodiac.
- Solana Gains More Than Bitcoin as Trader Speculates an 'Extreme Move' Is Ahead: The broader altcoin market also showed signs of rebounding from oversold levels, one analyst noted.
- Bitcoin Miner Shares Offer Good Entry Point Ahead of Halving Event: Bernstein: The cryptocurrency has performed well before the halving and is likely to sustain momentum for the rest of the year, leading to new highs, the report said.
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KuCoin captured a record share of centralised exchange volume in 2025, with more than $1.25tn traded as its volumes grew faster than the wider crypto market.
What to know:
- KuCoin recorded over $1.25 trillion in total trading volume in 2025, equivalent to an average of roughly $114 billion per month, marking its strongest year on record.
- This performance translated into an all-time high share of centralised exchange volume, as KuCoin’s activity expanded faster than aggregate CEX volumes, which slowed during periods of lower market volatility.
- Spot and derivatives volumes were evenly split, each exceeding $500 billion for the year, signalling broad-based usage rather than reliance on a single product line.
- Altcoins accounted for the majority of trading activity, reinforcing KuCoin’s role as a primary liquidity venue beyond BTC and ETH at a time when majors saw more muted turnover.
- Even as overall crypto volumes softened mid-year, KuCoin maintained elevated baseline activity, indicating structurally higher user engagement rather than short-lived volume spikes.
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Here’s why bitcoin’s is failing its role as a 'safe haven' versus gold
Bitcoin behaves more like an "ATM" during uncertain times, with investors quickly selling it to raise cash.
What to know:
- During recent geopolitical tensions, Bitcoin lost 6.6% of its value, while gold rose 8.6%, demonstrating bitcoin's vulnerability in times of market stress.
- Bitcoin behaves more like an "ATM" during uncertain times, with investors quickly selling it to raise cash, contrary to its reputation as a stable digital asset.
- Gold remains the preferred hedge for short-term risks, while bitcoin is better suited for long-term monetary and geopolitical uncertainties that unfold over years.
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