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Vibe Check: Momentum Building: CoinDesk Indices' Todd Groth
Periodic observations and market musings from Todd Groth, Head of Research, CoinDesk Indices.
Updated Mar 8, 2024, 9:20 p.m. Published Feb 9, 2024, 2:00 p.m.
Regaining Momentum.
We’ve broken past the 1,700 level on the CoinDesk 20 Index as the stronger price trends across smart contracts broadened across the market on Feb. 7. This caused both bitcoin and ether Trend Indicators - a tool created by CoinDesk subsidiary CoinDesk Indices, to help investors determine where the price are going - to register “Significant Uptrend” again after a short hiatus in “Neutral” and “Uptrend” value.
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The market was also supported by net inflows into crypto-linked products last week, with over $700 million flowing into the market, primarily focused on bitcoin linked products.
Its worth noting the rotation we’re seeing between the legacy Grayscale product and newer and cheaper iShares and Fidelity's exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which came online weeks ago. Ex-GBTC, new Bitcoin ETF product holdings now surpass the MicroStrategy treasury, accounting for 192k of bitcoin (about 1% of all future supply).
On the U.S. Dollar front (DXY), the recent increase in U.S. interest rates have helped move USD higher, but the January reversal appears to be stalling as the Fed’s campaign of hawkish rhetoric begins to subside and the market moves out expected interest rate cuts to start sometime into Q2 of this year.
Need more color on what's happening in the markets? Check out these stories:
- Bitcoin Crosses $46K as Year of 'Long' Begins, Easing ETF Sell-Off: Over the next few days, East Asia will celebrate the start of the year of the dragon, which is considered to be one of the luckiest and most prosperous animals in the Chinese Zodiac.
- Solana Gains More Than Bitcoin as Trader Speculates an 'Extreme Move' Is Ahead: The broader altcoin market also showed signs of rebounding from oversold levels, one analyst noted.
- Bitcoin Miner Shares Offer Good Entry Point Ahead of Halving Event: Bernstein: The cryptocurrency has performed well before the halving and is likely to sustain momentum for the rest of the year, leading to new highs, the report said.
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What to know:
- As of October 2025, GoPlus has generated $4.7M in total revenue across its product lines. The GoPlus App is the primary revenue driver, contributing $2.5M (approx. 53%), followed by the SafeToken Protocol at $1.7M.
- GoPlus Intelligence's Token Security API averaged 717 million monthly calls year-to-date in 2025 , with a peak of nearly 1 billion calls in February 2025. Total blockchain-level requests, including transaction simulations, averaged an additional 350 million per month.
- Since its January 2025 launch , the $GPS token has registered over $5B in total spot volume and $10B in derivatives volume in 2025. Monthly spot volume peaked in March 2025 at over $1.1B , while derivatives volume peaked the same month at over $4B.
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Coinbase Sees Crypto Recovery Ahead as Liquidity Improves and Fed Rate Cut Odds Climb
The crypto exchange also took note of a so-called AI bubble that continues to go strong and a weaker U.S. dollar.
What to know:
- Coinbase Institutional is seeing a potential December recovery in crypto, citing improving liquidity and a shift in macroeconomic conditions that could favor risk assets like bitcoin.
- The firm's optimism is driven by rising odds of Federal Reserve rate cuts, with markets pricing in a 93% chance easing next week, and improving liquidity conditions.
- Several recent institutional developments, including Vanguard's crypto ETF policy reversal and Bank of America's greenlighting of crypto allocations, have contributed to bitcoin's rebound from recent lows.
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