The bearish 'Bart Simpson' pattern is back as bitcoin and XRP prices pull back

Crypto traders are invoking “Bart Simpson,” the spiky-haired cartoon boy from “The Simpsons,” after a long time.

The reason? Bitcoin

Spotters flagged the formation on Sept. 1, re-igniting chatter across crypto X. Ben Cowen, a market analyst and founder of Into the Cryptoverse, suggested to his 1.2 million followers on X that the pattern was forming.

The pattern has three phases. First is the Spike, a sudden, aggressive price jump or drop that happens quickly enough to trick everyday buyers into chasing the momentum. Next is the Flat Range, or the head, when the price moves sideways in a tight band as trading volume typically drops off. Last is the Snap Back, a sharp reversal in the opposite direction of the original Spike. Put the three together, and just like that, Bart Simpson appears on the price chart.

The Spike began on Aug. 19, when BTC was trading around $64,420. By Aug. 21, the price of bitcoin had risen by nearly $14,000 to roughly $78,300, eventually hitting a wall at just under $80,700 on Aug. 25. At the time of writing, the price of bitcoin hovered around the $76,500 level, according to CoinDesk data.

The same price action, when viewed on a chart, looks unmistakably like Bart Simpson taking shape, with the final snap back unfolding.

Reactions on X are mixed. Many traders doubt the pattern will complete, expecting bitcoin to maintain its upward trajectory, while others view a potential pullback as a buying opportunity ahead of the next bull run.

If Bart Simpson shows his face, bitcoin's price would pull back by at least 20%, said Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics and former eToro senior analyst. However, Greenspan added he doubts it will happen.

“It's only a Bart Simpson if it falls 20%,” Greenspan said, noting the setup was a defining feature of bitcoin’s thinner, less mature markets.

“I can’t remember seeing a clean one in years,” he said, “although they could still happen. But as liquidity, market depth and institutional participation have increased, they appear to have quietly faded from bitcoin’s regular price action.”

Bart Simpson patterns are not exclusive to bitcoin, Greenspan said, adding that the story is entirely different for XRP.

“Given XRP’s near-vertical rally from roughly $1 to $1.70, the setup is certainly there. If it retraces sharply toward where the rally began, XRP won’t just be a relic of 2017; it will have the haircut to match.”

The Spike phase of the pattern in XRP’s case began on the same day and time as BTC’s. The price climbed sharply from $1 to $1.52 by Aug. 22. It has since been in the Flat Range phase but has trended downward, hovering around $1.32 at the time of writing.

Frank Hepworth, CEO and founder of New Market Trading, views the current chart as a clear warning signal, calling the Bart Simpson shape a classic distribution pattern where large holders sell off into retail buying.

Hepworth highlighted that "Bart's hair" formed as bitcoin repeatedly hit resistance at its 50-week moving average near $81,000, a level he calls the "last line in the sand" for bears. Because bitcoin failed to clear that hurdle, Hepworth warns the market could slide back toward $70,000, or even $58,000 if selling intensifies, prompting his firm to reduce its exposure.

Adding to the bearish outlook on XRP, Hepworth warned that XRP is particularly vulnerable to a steep sell-off due to its weakening performance against bitcoin.

With the XRP/BTC pair slipping back under its 20-week moving average, Hepworth expects XRP to underperform bitcoin if the market corrects. If bitcoin pulls back toward $70,000, Hepworth projects XRP could drop to between $0.55 and $1.21. If bitcoin falls further to $58,000, XRP could sink to $0.46.