Share this article
Bitcoin Could Reach $165K Based on Gold's Record Run: JPMorgan
Oct 2, 2025, 12:51 p.m.
Make us preferred on Google
What to know:
- On a volatility-adjusted basis relative to gold, JPMorgan estimates bitcoin could rise about 40% to $165,000 from the current $119,000.
- The bank says retail investors are driving the “debasement trade."
- Institutional investors are also participating through CME futures, the report said, but that activity has slowed compared to retail ETF demand.
Banking giant JPMorgan says bitcoin could climb to around $165,000 on a volatility-adjusted basis relative to gold, highlighting what the bank sees as significant upside if the so-called “debasement trade” continues to gain momentum.
The Wall Street lender’s models suggest that bitcoin would need to rise about 40% from current levels to match the scale of private gold holdings once risk is accounted for.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW
Don't miss another story.Subscribe to the Crypto Daybook Americas Newsletter today. See all newsletters
The world's largest cryptocurrency was trading around $119,000 at publication time.
The debasement trade involves buying assets such as gold or bitcoin to hedge against the devaluation of fiat currencies.
The bank's projection comes as retail investors accelerated their embrace of the debasement trade, pouring into both bitcoin and gold exchange-traded funds over the past quarter.
Analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou noted that flows into these products have surged since late 2024, a trend that picked up ahead of the U.S. presidential election.
The analysts framed the trade as a response to long-term inflation concerns, ballooning government deficits, questions about Federal Reserve independence, waning trust in fiat currencies in some emerging markets, and a broader move to diversify away from the U.S. dollar.
Cumulative flows into spot bitcoin and gold ETFs have risen sharply, JPMorgan said, with retail buyers driving much of the activity. Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETFs) initially outpaced gold earlier in the year, particularly after “Liberation Day,” but gold ETF inflows have been catching up since August, narrowing the gap.
Institutional investors have also been participating, according to JPMorgan, though mainly via Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) bitcoin and gold futures rather than ETFs. The bank’s proxy based on open interest shows institutions have been net buyers since 2024, but their momentum has recently lagged retail demand.
The steep rise in gold prices over the past month has also bolstered bitcoin’s relative appeal, as the bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio has drifted below 2.0. That shift underscores the bank’s view that bitcoin remains undervalued relative to gold, with its current price about $50,000 below where JPMorgan’s model suggests it should be.
Read more: When Could Bitcoin Break Out to New Highs? Watch Out for Gold
AI Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk's full AI Policy.
More For You
KuCoin captured a record share of centralised exchange volume in 2025, with more than $1.25tn traded as its volumes grew faster than the wider crypto market.
What to know:
- KuCoin recorded over $1.25 trillion in total trading volume in 2025, equivalent to an average of roughly $114 billion per month, marking its strongest year on record.
- This performance translated into an all-time high share of centralised exchange volume, as KuCoin’s activity expanded faster than aggregate CEX volumes, which slowed during periods of lower market volatility.
- Spot and derivatives volumes were evenly split, each exceeding $500 billion for the year, signalling broad-based usage rather than reliance on a single product line.
- Altcoins accounted for the majority of trading activity, reinforcing KuCoin’s role as a primary liquidity venue beyond BTC and ETH at a time when majors saw more muted turnover.
- Even as overall crypto volumes softened mid-year, KuCoin maintained elevated baseline activity, indicating structurally higher user engagement rather than short-lived volume spikes.
More For You
Strive’s preferred equity blueprint for Strategy’s $8 billion convertible debt overhang
The bitcoin treasury firm is using perpetual preferreds to retire convertibles, offering a potential framework for managing long dated leverage.
What to know:
- Strive upsized its SATA follow on offering beyond $150 million, pricing the perpetual preferred at $90.
- The structure offers a blueprint for replacing fixed maturity convertibles with perpetual equity capital that removes refinancing risk.
- Strategy has a $3 billion convertible tranche due in June 2028 with a $672.40 conversion price, which could be addressed using a similar preferred equity approach.
Top Stories
