Bitcoin Falls Below $104K as Retail Investor Sentiment Returns to Liberation Day Levels

Bitcoin BTC$69,234.07 BTC$69,234.07 continues to struggle for direction amid mounting macroeconomic pressures and a notable deterioration in retail investor sentiment. The asset is hovering near $103,700 following a volatile 24-hour stretch, in which it briefly dropped below $103,400 before staging a modest recovery, according to CoinDesk Research's technical analysis model. This price behavior reflects an uneasy market backdrop, shaped by both geopolitical tensions and uncertain monetary policy.

According to an X post by crypto analytics firm Santiment on Thursday, sentiment among retail investors has turned sharply negative. The firm reported that the ratio of bullish to bearish commentary has fallen to just 1.03 to 1 — the lowest since early April, when the President Donald Trump unveiled his so-called Liberation Day tariffs, triggering peak market fear at the time.

Santiment emphasized that this current wave of retail pessimism is unusually intense and, based on past patterns, may mark a contrarian signal for a price rebound. They specifically noted that back in April, Bitcoin rallied shortly after similar fear levels surfaced, suggesting large investors often use periods of retail capitulation to accumulate at favorable prices.

Adding to the pressure is the Federal Reserve's recent decision to hold interest rates steady, which has kept btcoin trading in a relatively tight $100,000 to $110,000 range over the past month. Meanwhile, on-chain metrics show declining open interest on Binance, pointing to continued deleveraging among derivatives traders. At the same time, whale wallets have shown steady accumulation since 2023 — an indication that large holders are continuing to build their positions despite the short-term uncertainty.

Technical Analysis Highlights

• BTC-USD traded in a 24-hour range between $106,552.98 and $102,411.01, a 3.89% swing as volatility spiked midday.
• A sharp drop occurred between 14:00 and 17:00 UTC, pushing price below $104,000 and forming strong resistance near $106,000 on above-average volume.
• Support emerged between $103,000 and $103,500, where price consolidated on declining volume during the final eight hours of the analysis period.
• A V-shaped rebound developed late in the session, with BTC rising from $103,363 to $103,618 and establishing a local floor near $103,500.
• Short-term momentum indicators showed mild recovery as the session closed near intraday highs, but follow-through remained limited.

Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk's full AI Policy.