Bitcoin’s long-term rally is ‘broken’ until it reclaims $85,000, Deribit executive says

Bitcoin's BTC$70,429.29 long-term rally is "broken" and will remain so until the price climbs above $85,000, said Jean-David Péquignot, chief commercial officer of derivatives exchange Deribit.

The largest cryptocurrency has settled into the $60,000 to $70,000 range in the past week, some 45% below the record high it hit in October. It's on track to fall for a fourth straight week, and dropped below $85,000 at the end of January.

"Until the market reclaims $85k, the longer-term chart remains broken, and the path of least resistance technically remains lower," Péquignot said in an interview during the Consensus Hong Kong conference.

Rising above $85,000 would confirm that buyers have established control, having soaked up all the supply that wrecked the long-term outlook. The bitcoin price was recently near $66,600, well below Péquignot's make-or-break level, and deep in bear territory with room for more pain.

Speaking of the pain, $60,000 is the next big support, a price that nearly came into play early this month as bitcoin wilted alongside software stocks. According to Péquignot, it is a major psychological level, where large buy walls, or multiple purchase orders, have historically resided.

"If $60k fails to hold on a closing basis, the 200-week MA is the next logical, and possibly final stop for this correction," he said.

The 200-week simple moving average (SMA) is widely regarded as the holy grail for bottom fishers, or traders hunting bargains at bear-market lows to time their bullish bets.​ Since 2015, multiple bitcoin bear markets have hit lows near this average, which is why traders now track it closely. The average is currently located at around $58,000.

"Traders would be looking at the $58k–$60k range as the ultimate support," Péquignot said.