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What’s Next for Bitcoin With Crypto Market Cheering Trump's Trade Deal Hype?
Several factors suggest the $100K breakout may not be a smooth ride.
Updated May 8, 2025, 1:43 p.m. Published May 8, 2025, 5:57 a.m.
What to know:
- Bitcoin is nearing the $100,000 mark amid speculation of a major U.S.-U.K. trade deal.
- The Wall Street Journal suggests the trade deal announcement may only be a preliminary framework.
- Key indicators like the Coinbase premium and RSI divergence hint at potential resistance and weakening momentum.
- Onchain analysis points to $99,900 as key resistance.
Bitcoin is fast closing on the $100,000 mark as U.S. President Donald Trump teased a major trade deal, with reports suggesting it could be with the U.K.
The upswing in prices is consistent with the cryptocurrency's broader bullish technical setup and buoyant risk sentiment in traditional markets. As of this writing, the Asian stocks traded higher, with the futures tied to the S&P 500 up by 0.6%.
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Still, a couple of factors suggest the $100,000 breakout may not be a smooth ride.
WSJ pours cold water over optimism
Firstly, as per the Wall Street Journal, the big trade deal that Trump teased on Truth Social could be a "framework of an announcement with tariff adjustments."
In other words, the impending announcement could be a framework of discussions that could lead to a trade deal weeks or months from now. So, the bullish momentum in BTC could slow once the initial optimism fades.
Resistance at $99.9K
As discussed earlier this week, the $99,900 could prove a tough nut to crack due to the potential for increased selling pressure from those who bought coins around these levels early this year and profit taking by long-term holders.
Coinbase premium
Coinbase premium indicator, which measures the spread between BTC's dollar-denominated price on the Coinbase exchange and tether-denominated price on Binance, is widely seen as a proxy for demand from the U.S.-based investors.
In the past, sustained BTC bull runs have been characterized by an uptick in the Coinbase premium.
However, since late April, the seven-day moving average of the Coinbase premium has diverged bearishly from the price.
Bearish RSI divergence
While BTC set a new multi-week high during the Asian session, the 14-hour relative strength index, an indicator used to gauge momentum and overbought and oversold conditions, didn't follow suit.
The resulting bearish divergence suggests the momentum may be weakening.
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- Since its January 2025 launch , the $GPS token has registered over $5B in total spot volume and $10B in derivatives volume in 2025. Monthly spot volume peaked in March 2025 at over $1.1B , while derivatives volume peaked the same month at over $4B.
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BTC continues to bore traders with its directionless price action. But some indicators are pointing to renewed bullishness.
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- The ETF flows continue to disappoint.
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