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Bitcoin at Risk of Dropping to $75K if BTC's $83K Support Breaks, Chart Analysis Show
Key intraday averages look to cross bearish as bulls struggle to engineer a breakout above $86K.
Updated Apr 16, 2025, 12:46 p.m. Published Apr 16, 2025, 12:25 p.m.
What to know:
- Bitcoin's recovery rally has stalled, with the $86,000 mark acting as a resistance zone.
- Key momentum indicators suggest a potential bearish shift, as the 50- and 100-hour SMAs are poised for a bearish crossover.
- A move below $83,000 could trigger a sell-off, while a close above $86,000 is needed to continue the recovery rally.
This is a daily technical analysis by CoinDesk analyst and Chartered Market Technician Omkar Godbole.
Bitcoin's recovery rally has stalled since Sunday, raising the risk of a bearish shift in key indicators.
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Since Sunday, the $86,000 mark has emerged as a resistance and supply zone, with bulls failing to keep gains above that level. The elusive breakout has raised the risk of a bearish realignment in key momentum indicators – the 50, 100- and 200-hour simple moving averages (SMA). The three averages stacked one below the other and trending south represent the bearish alignment.
The 50- and 100-hour SMAs have peaked and appear on track to produce a bearish crossover that will see the former move below the latter. While the cryptocurrency's price remains above the 200-hour SMA, the impending bear cross of the other two SMAs indicates that sellers are looking to reassert themselves.
Additionally, the daily chart MACD histogram has stopped printing successively higher bars above the zero line, reflecting a loss of upward momentum to support the notion of potential bearish developments in the market.
All this, when viewed against the backdrop of downward trending 50- and 100-day SMAs, calls for caution on the part of the bulls. A move below $83K, the hourly chart support, would validate the bearish developments, potentially yielding a sell-off toward the recent lows near $75K.
Meanwhile, a UTC close above $86K is needed to signal a continuation of the recovery rally.
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