Share this article
Bitcoin at Risk of Dropping to $75K if BTC's $83K Support Breaks, Chart Analysis Show
Key intraday averages look to cross bearish as bulls struggle to engineer a breakout above $86K.
Updated Apr 16, 2025, 12:46 p.m. Published Apr 16, 2025, 12:25 p.m.
What to know:
- Bitcoin's recovery rally has stalled, with the $86,000 mark acting as a resistance zone.
- Key momentum indicators suggest a potential bearish shift, as the 50- and 100-hour SMAs are poised for a bearish crossover.
- A move below $83,000 could trigger a sell-off, while a close above $86,000 is needed to continue the recovery rally.
This is a daily technical analysis by CoinDesk analyst and Chartered Market Technician Omkar Godbole.
Bitcoin's recovery rally has stalled since Sunday, raising the risk of a bearish shift in key indicators.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW
Don't miss another story.Subscribe to the Crypto Daybook Americas Newsletter today. See all newsletters
Since Sunday, the $86,000 mark has emerged as a resistance and supply zone, with bulls failing to keep gains above that level. The elusive breakout has raised the risk of a bearish realignment in key momentum indicators – the 50, 100- and 200-hour simple moving averages (SMA). The three averages stacked one below the other and trending south represent the bearish alignment.
The 50- and 100-hour SMAs have peaked and appear on track to produce a bearish crossover that will see the former move below the latter. While the cryptocurrency's price remains above the 200-hour SMA, the impending bear cross of the other two SMAs indicates that sellers are looking to reassert themselves.
Additionally, the daily chart MACD histogram has stopped printing successively higher bars above the zero line, reflecting a loss of upward momentum to support the notion of potential bearish developments in the market.
All this, when viewed against the backdrop of downward trending 50- and 100-day SMAs, calls for caution on the part of the bulls. A move below $83K, the hourly chart support, would validate the bearish developments, potentially yielding a sell-off toward the recent lows near $75K.
Meanwhile, a UTC close above $86K is needed to signal a continuation of the recovery rally.
More For You
What to know:
- As of October 2025, GoPlus has generated $4.7M in total revenue across its product lines. The GoPlus App is the primary revenue driver, contributing $2.5M (approx. 53%), followed by the SafeToken Protocol at $1.7M.
- GoPlus Intelligence's Token Security API averaged 717 million monthly calls year-to-date in 2025 , with a peak of nearly 1 billion calls in February 2025. Total blockchain-level requests, including transaction simulations, averaged an additional 350 million per month.
- Since its January 2025 launch , the $GPS token has registered over $5B in total spot volume and $10B in derivatives volume in 2025. Monthly spot volume peaked in March 2025 at over $1.1B , while derivatives volume peaked the same month at over $4B.
More For You
Coinbase Sees Crypto Recovery Ahead as Liquidity Improves and Fed Rate Cut Odds Climb
The crypto exchange also took note of a so-called AI bubble that continues to go strong and a weaker U.S. dollar.
What to know:
- Coinbase Institutional is seeing a potential December recovery in crypto, citing improving liquidity and a shift in macroeconomic conditions that could favor risk assets like bitcoin.
- The firm's optimism is driven by rising odds of Federal Reserve rate cuts, with markets pricing in a 93% chance easing next week, and improving liquidity conditions.
- Several recent institutional developments, including Vanguard's crypto ETF policy reversal and Bank of America's greenlighting of crypto allocations, have contributed to bitcoin's rebound from recent lows.
Top Stories
