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Harris and Trump Bets Near Even Odds Ahead of Tuesday's U.S. Election Day
The most popular Polymarket bet has seen a flurry in trades ahead of Election Day, contributing to a surge of Harris’ winning shares on the betting platform.
Updated Nov 4, 2024, 3:18 p.m. Published Nov 4, 2024, 4:21 a.m.
- Democrat nominee Kamala Harris has eaten away at Republican rival Donald Trump's lead on Polymarket.
- Polymarket still gives a significant premium to Trump's odds of winning compared to polls.
Perceived winning odds of Democrat Kamala Harris continue to rise on betting platform Polymarket ahead of the U.S. elections, with users buying and selling hundreds of thousands of favored shares in a bump for market activity.
Polymarket is a blockchain-based betting marketplace where users can buy "shares" in the outcome of any prediction, winning USDC 1 per share if the outcome occurs. If a Yes share for an event costs $0.60, the market interprets this as a 60% chance of the event occurring.
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Shares of Harris winning the election have surged to over 44 cents ahead of Tuesday's count, up from 33 cents on October 30. Republican Donald Trump's shares have fallen in tandem, dropping from 66 cents to 55 cents in that time period.
Meanwhile, polling aggregator Real Clear Polling gives Trump a microscopic edge at 48.5-48.4%.
Bets above $10,000 and $100,000 have increased over the weekend to above-average activity. Large holders of Trump and Harris' "yes" shares are offloading their shares amid the high demand, likely taking profits from the price rise in those shares over the past few months.
The increase in Harris' odds might be due to traders hedging their bets, per a CoinDesk analysis, with a study of trades above $10,000 suggesting both large bets on Harris and strategic trading to protect against a Trump loss.
Some market observers said the increase in Harris' odds reflects hedging positions among traders who've also bet on a victory for her Republican rival Trump.
Well-known political bettor known as Domer said in an X post Sunday that they give Harris a 55-60% chance of becoming the next President, factoring in various polls and voter behavior trends.
The last important pieces of the polling puzzle are in this morning (NYT polls & Muhlenberg in PA), and I'll say that I think Kamala is now somewhere around 55-60% range to be the next President. Given markets put Trump around 55%, I'm betting a lot on Kam at the moment.
— Domer (@Domahhhh) November 3, 2024
If you… pic.twitter.com/HzMINRbu3i
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