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Bitcoin Slides Below $40K, Now Down Nearly 20% From Post-ETF Euphoria
Analysts at 10x Research are eyeing the $38,000 level for a potential bottom.
Updated Mar 8, 2024, 8:19 p.m. Published Jan 22, 2024, 7:17 p.m.
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The price of bitcoin [BTC] fell below $40,000 for the first time since December as selling continues to overwhelm buying despite sizable inflows into the new spot exchange-traded funds.
A number of spot bitcoin ETFs began trading on Jan. 11, with bitcoin surging to $49,000 in the minutes after their launch. The rise was fleeting though, and the price has been heading south since, finally falling through $40,000 moments ago. Bitcoin is now at its weakest price since the beginning of December, but still more than a double from year-ago levels.
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At a glance, the new spot products are seeing a gusher of fresh cash, with two – BlackRock's (IBIT) and Fidelity's (FBTC) – topping more than $1 billion in assets under management (AUM) in the week since opening for business. That has to be balanced, however, against what's now a multi-billion dollar outflow from Grayscale's GBTC product as investors take profits or move to other lower-cost vehicles. In addition to outflows at GBTC, money has been exiting previously existing spot bitcoin exchange-traded products in Europe and Canada as well as futures-based ETFs like ProShares' (BITO).
Searching for a bottom
The bitcoin trend has turned bearish for the first time since Oct. 2 when the price was $27,530, said 10x Research in a Friday report. That news alone might be comforting to bulls who will remember Oct. 2 of last year as nearly the exact launching point for about a 70% run higher over the ensuing three months.
10x's central thesis for the first quarter of 2024 was that any ETF-related rally would be fake-out and for prices to decline into March towards $38,000, to this point a prediction that appears to be playing out, though perhaps faster than anticipated.
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- KuCoin recorded over $1.25 trillion in total trading volume in 2025, equivalent to an average of roughly $114 billion per month, marking its strongest year on record.
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- Altcoins accounted for the majority of trading activity, reinforcing KuCoin’s role as a primary liquidity venue beyond BTC and ETH at a time when majors saw more muted turnover.
- Even as overall crypto volumes softened mid-year, KuCoin maintained elevated baseline activity, indicating structurally higher user engagement rather than short-lived volume spikes.
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Gold tops $5,000 as bitcoin stalls near $87,000 in widening macro-crypto split: Asia Morning Briefing
Bitcoin’s onchain data points to supply overhang and weak participation, while gold’s breakout is priced by markets as a durable macro regime shift.
What to know:
- Gold’s surge above $5,000 an ounce is increasingly seen as a durable regime shift, with investors treating the metal as a persistent hedge against geopolitical risk, central bank demand and a weaker dollar.
- Bitcoin is stuck near $87,000 in a low-conviction market, as on-chain data show older holders selling into rallies, newer buyers absorbing losses and a heavy supply overhang capping moves toward $100,000.
- Derivatives and prediction markets point to continued consolidation in bitcoin and sustained strength in gold, with thin futures volumes, subdued leverage and weak demand for higher-beta crypto assets like ether reinforcing the cautious tone.
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