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Bitcoin Plunges Below $41K as 'Sell the Bitcoin ETF News' Wins the Day
Large inflows in the new spot bitcoin ETFs have been sizably offset by outflows from not just from GBTC but other global bitcoin-related ETPs.
Updated Mar 8, 2024, 8:12 p.m. Published Jan 18, 2024, 9:09 p.m.
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The price of bitcoin [BTC] fell another 4.5% on Thursday, tumbling to its lowest price in a month at $40,800. The decline was roughly matched by the CoinDesk 20 Index, which tracks the world's largest and most liquid cryptocurrencies, now lower by 4.6% over the past 24 hours.
Since the newly approved spot bitcoin ETFs began trading on Jan. 11, the price of bitcoin – after a very brief spike higher – is now lower by about 13%.
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Looking at data updated as of yesterday, the new spot ETF issuers have added more than 68,000 bitcoin in their first week of action. Grayscale's GBTC, however, has shed roughly 40,000 bitcoin, leaving a net addition of about 28,000 to bitcoin ETFs.
Read more: Crypto Markets Optimistic Despite Bitcoin's Plunge, CoinDesk 20 Perpetual Futures Show
K33 Research Analyst Vetle Lunde said that long before U.S. regulatory approval, there were already plenty of spot bitcoin products trading around the world. In fact, he said, exchange-traded products (ETPs) globally currently hold more than 864,000 bitcoin, putting in some perspective the relatively minor addition – so far – of the U.S. vehicles.
Lunde went on the note that in addition to the GBTC exits, Canadian and European ETPs have seen sizable outflows over the past week as investors take profits and/or put money into the cheaper U.S. ETFs.
And then there's the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) which recently had more than $2 billion in assets under management. While this futures-based ETF held no bitcoin, it accounts for 36% of bitcoin contract open interest at the CME Group's exchange, according to Lunde. Together, futures-based bitcoin ETFs account for 48% of all bitcoin open interest at CME, he added.
As BITO and the other futures-based funds see outflows, said Lunde, they need to close (sell) their long positions in the futures market, potentially putting further pressure on bitcoin prices.
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‘Bitcoin to zero’ searches spike in the U.S., but the bottom signal is mixed
Google Trends data shows the term hit a record high in the U.S. this month, though global interest has fallen since peaking in August.
What to know:
- U.S. searches for “bitcoin zero” on Google hit a record high in February as BTC slid toward $60,000 after hitting a peak in October.
- In the rest of the world, searches for the term peaked in August, suggesting fear is concentrated in the U.S. rather than worldwide.
- Similar U.S. search spikes in 2021 and 2022 coincided with local bottoms.
- Because Google Trends measures relative interest on a 0-to-100 scale amid a much larger bitcoin user base today, the latest U.S. spike signals elevated retail anxiety, but does not reliably guarantee a clean contrarian reversal.
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