Share this article
Study: Google Searches Can Predict Bitcoin Trading Volume
Google search data can predict the price of bitcoin, new research has found.
By Grace Caffyn
Updated Sep 11, 2021, 11:54 a.m. Published Oct 2, 2015, 9:15 a.m.
Google search data can predict the price of bitcoin, new research has found.
Academics from the University of Cagliari, Italy, compared USD trading volume with data from Google Trends in the 12 months leading up to July 2015.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW
Don't miss another story.Subscribe to the Crypto Daybook Americas Newsletter today. See all newsletters
The results, detailed in their new paper, indicated that search volumes for the keyword 'bitcoin' correlated with – and sometimes predicted – the currency's market volumes.
Using a Pearson correlation, which shows the relationship between two variables on a scale of -1 (lowest) to +1 (highest), Martina Matta, Ilaria Lunesu and Michele Marchesi found a positive correlation equal to 0.6. This means trading volumes "[follow] the same direction pace of queries volumes," they said.
The trio found the Google Trends data also functioned as a "good predictor", because of its high cross correlation value (calculated using a Granger causality series). This means query volumes were able to anticipate trading volumes in "almost three days".
The researchers say they would like to test out their hypothesis on social media platforms such as Twitter, Facebook and Google+.
Search terms
The team's research supports findings from previous studies that have compared public interest in bitcoin with the currency's market performance.
A 2014 report from Swiss university ETH Zurich concluded that surges in searches and tweets about the currency lead to major price fluctuations. While a 'positive feedback loop' saw price rises increase search volume, which in turn increased the price, high search volume also functioned as an indicator for those planning to sell off their coins, lowering the price, it said.
Another paper from the finance department at Nicolaus Copernicus University, Poland, observed that bitcoin returns tended to grow when the currency was searched for, alongside its mentions in the media.
A 1% increase in articles that mentioned bitcoin would raise returns by 0.3% (30 basis points), while a similar increase in Google searches would pump returns by 0.5% (around 50 basis points), it said.
Featured image: antb / Shutterstock.com
More For You
What to know:
- As of October 2025, GoPlus has generated $4.7M in total revenue across its product lines. The GoPlus App is the primary revenue driver, contributing $2.5M (approx. 53%), followed by the SafeToken Protocol at $1.7M.
- GoPlus Intelligence's Token Security API averaged 717 million monthly calls year-to-date in 2025 , with a peak of nearly 1 billion calls in February 2025. Total blockchain-level requests, including transaction simulations, averaged an additional 350 million per month.
- Since its January 2025 launch , the $GPS token has registered over $5B in total spot volume and $10B in derivatives volume in 2025. Monthly spot volume peaked in March 2025 at over $1.1B , while derivatives volume peaked the same month at over $4B.
More For You
Bitcoin Treads Water Near $90K as Bitfinex Warns of 'Fragile Setup' to Shocks
BTC's relative weakness compared to stocks points to tepid spot demand, making the largest crypto vulnerable to macro volatility, Bitfinex analysts said.
What to know:
- Bitcoin erased very modest overnight gains early Monday and spent the rest of the U.S. session in a tight range around the $90,000 level.
- Rising long bond yields and a small U.S. equities pulling back weighed on risk appetite as traders eye this week's Federal Reserve meeting.
- Bitfinex analysts pointed out bitcoin's relative weakness against U.S. stocks amid modest spot demand and structural softness.
Top Stories
