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Polymarket Odds on U.S. Military Action Against Iran Slide as Trump Team Proposes Tehran Talks
Odds of U.S. military strike against Iran before July slide.
Jun 17, 2025, 8:26 a.m.
What to know:
- Odds of U.S. military strike against Iran fall back below 50% on Polymarket.
- Axos reported that the Trump team is looking for a meeting with Iran's foreign minister for a diplomatic solution to the nuclear deal issues.
Traders on decentralized betting platform Polymarket have scaled back expectations for U.S. military action against Iran amid reports that President Donald Trump's team is looking to mend fences.
As of writing, probability that U.S. will strike Iran by June 30 stood at 46%, down sharply from the overnight high of 66.9%, according to trading in the Polymarket-listed contract "U.S. military action against Iran before July."
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The decline follows a report from Axios that the U.S. is mulling a meeting this week between U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. The meeting will be aimed at exploring a diplomatic initiative involving a nuclear deal and an end of the Israel-Iran conflict.
Yet one Polymarket user said that "Trump should join the fray: his troops need the experience in postpostmodern warfare," calling for a military action against Iran.
On Friday, Israel launched coordinated airstrikes and drone attacks on multiple sites across on Iranian military and nuclear facilities, leading to retaliatory action by Tehran.
Bitcoin initially fell in a knee-jerk reaction to $102,750 alongside risk aversion in traditional markets, characterized by an uptick in the anti-risk Japanese yen and weakness in the U.S. stocks.
BTC, however, has stabilized since then, with prices recovering to trade at $106,700 at press time. However, futures tied to the S&P 500 traded 0.7% lower.
Note that the Trump administration is yet to official comment on the Axios report. In a late Monday post on Truth Social, Trump reiterated that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon, calling for immediate evacuation of Tehran.
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