Bitcoin Bounce Fizzles as Nvidia's Slide Ahead of Earnings Adds to Risk-Off Mood

A pleasant Tuesday summer evening in the U.S. was upended when bitcoin BTC$89,629.86 plunged nearly 6% in a handful of minutes, more than erasing sizable gains seen late last week after a dovish turn by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and the teaming up of pro-crypto presidential candidates Donald Trump and RFK Jr.

After touching as low as $58,200, bitcoin managed a bounce back above $60,100 during early U.S. trading on Friday, but that's mostly evaporated as the noon hour approaches. Now at $58,800 bitcoin is lower by 4.5% over the past 24 hours. The broader CoinDesk 20 Index is down a similar amount.

Ether ETH$3,125.57 outperformed by a hair, falling 4% over the past day, but longer-term, the second-largest crypto has seen its price relative to bitcoin plunge 21% this year to its lowest level since April 2021. At $2,490 at press time, ether's 2024 year-to-date advance has narrowed to just 9% versus bitcoin's 39% rally.

Behind the divergence, it's been a tale of two starkly different spot ETF launches this year, with the bitcoin funds pulling in more than $10 billion in net inflows while the ether vehicles on a net basis have bled assets since their introductions.

Read more: Ether Spot ETF Flows Have Underwhelmed Versus Bitcoin: JPMorgan

Macro outlook becomes a bit less inviting

Adding to pressure on crypto were declines in the major U.S. stock averages, led by 1.3% drop in the tech-heavy Nasdaq. Helping to push the Nasdaq lower was a 3% fall in Nvidia (NVDA) ahead of its quarterly earnings results due after the bell on Wednesday. Though still a bit off from an all-time high set earlier this summer, Nvidia remains up 159% year-to-date, leaving plenty of room below should the company disappoint on either its quarter or its outlook.

Also prompting some nervousness is the idea that investors may have read too much into Fed Chair Powell's dovish remarks at the central bank's Jackson Hole conference late last week. Traders Friday quickly moved to price in nearly a 50% chance of the Fed cutting its benchmark fed funds rate by 50 basis points (instead of the previously presumed 25) at the upcoming September meeting.

There's still plenty of data to come in between now and that September meeting, however, including the government's employment and inflation reports for August. Those numbers are likely to have to come in pretty soft for the Fed to make such a large cut in rates so quickly. At the current time, the odds of a 50 basis point move have drifted down to 36%, according to CME FedWatch.