Bitcoin Holds Near $111K as Traders Weigh China Retaliation, Risk Appetite Cools

Bitcoin hovered around $111,000 Thursday afternoon Hong Kong time, steady after another volatile stretch as China’s latest retaliatory trade measures against the U.S. reignited risk aversion across global markets.

The broader crypto market slipped back into caution mode, with total capitalization unchanged at roughly $3.8 trillion. Ether ETH$3,224.92 traded near $4,000, BNB at $1,180, and Solana’s SOL holding above $190, while DOGE$0.1392 outperformed majors with a 4% daily gain and a 21% rise on the week.

Analysts said the latest pullback looks more like digestion than panic, following last week’s record $19 billion liquidation event, with on-chain firm CryptoQuant stating that the recent “decline was not a panic sell-off but a controlled deleveraging” in a weekly market note.

Sentiment data from FxPro showed the fear index slipping to 34, while traders continue to defend the $109,000 – $110,000 range that’s acted as a base since August.

“The bears seem to have had their fill,” FxPro's Alex Kuptsikevich said in an email. “Potential buyers are waiting for a clearer reason to add risk, and trade tensions aren’t that reason yet.”

On-chain signals still tilt constructively. CryptoQuant’s Ki Young Ju noted that Bitcoin’s correlation with gold is at a multi-year high of 0.9, reinforcing the “digital gold” narrative as both assets move in tandem during geopolitical shocks.

Ethereum developers, meanwhile, advanced testing of the Fusaka upgrade on Sepolia, while Bhutan confirmed plans to migrate its national digital ID system from Polygon to Ethereum by early 2026 in a quiet sign of long-term trust in the network’s infrastructure.

Institutional flow remains the stabilizer for some participants.

“Despite a historic deleveraging, structural demand for Bitcoin and Ethereum remains firmly intact,” said Nassar Achkar, Chief Strategy Officer at CoinW. “ETF inflows and stablecoin supply growth are still building the liquidity base — what matters now is how fast that turns into new risk-taking.”

Meanwhile, traders continue to watch Trump’s tariff rhetoric and Powell’s next remarks for catalysts. “Rate cuts are on the table, but tariff fears are still capping upside,” said Nick Ruck of LVRG Research. “Bitcoin’s long-term value is drawing back investors, but macro headlines keep the short-term choppy.”

The $110,000 is now the zone to watch. Lose that, and sentiment could finally shift from cautious to defensive.