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The total illiquid Bitcoin has reached a new high, providing a bullish outlook for the flagship crypto. This refers to the BTC supply that is unlikely to hit the open, given the long-term holding of the investors who own these coins.
Bitcoin’s Illiquid Supply Hits New High
Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin’s illiquid supply has reached a new high of 14.3 million BTC, marking over 72% of the flagship’s circulating supply. This supply is held by long-term holders (LTHs) who haven’t moved their coins in over seven years, highlighting a strong conviction in the flagship crypto.
A large part of Bitcoin’s supply being in the hands of long-term holders is typically bullish, as it continuously reduces the amount of selling pressure on the coin. It could also lead to a potential supply shock, whereby demand outpaces supply.
Asset manager Fidelity stated in a research report that this new demand for BTC, coupled with a fixed supply and decreasing issuance schedule, was what likely sparked the rally to a new all-time high (ATH) above $124,000. Fidelity further predicted that this upward trend for the Bitcoin price could continue in the years ahead.
Meanwhile, Fidelity highlighted two distinct cohorts that satisfy the threshold of Bitcoin’s illiquid supply. The first is the BTC that was last moved seven or more years ago, while the second is public companies that hold at least 1,000 BTC. Michael Saylor’s Strategy leads the latter as his company currently holds 638,985 BTC, which accounts for over 3% of Bitcoin’s total supply. Strategy hasn’t sold any coin since it began accumulating in 2020.
Fidelity predicts that the combined group will hold over six million Bitcoin by the end of 2025 or over 28% of the crypto’s total supply of 21 million. The asset manager noted that BTC’s illiquid supply has only decreased quarter-over-quarter once in its history.
BTC’s Scarcity May Become Its “Focal Point”
Fidelity predicts that over time, Bitcoin’s scarcity may become the focal point as more entities buy and hold BTC long term. They noted that the illiquid supply could rise drastically if nation-state adoption increases and the regulatory environment continues to evolve. Countries like the U.S. are already looking to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, which could create a massive supply shock.
On the other hand, Fidelity noted that there is the possibility of large amounts of Bitcoin’s illiquid supply being transferred. This could happen as long-term holders and public companies move to realize gains, possibly due to a significant price appreciation. The asset manager earlier mentioned that early signs of potential capitulation may already be emerging as 80,000 ancient BTC were sold in July 2025.
At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $115,600, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
