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Recent market data has shown that Bitcoin has been trading at an extended discount on Coinbase. Over the past several months, this negative premium, where BTC prices on Coinbase sit below the international average level, has remained consistent. Such prolonged discounts have historically coincided with periods of market uncertainty or late-stage corrections.
How Coinbase Premium Remains Negative For Months
Bitcoin has been trading at a persistent discount on Coinbase for the past 3 months. A full-time crypto trader and investor, Daan Crypto Trades, has pointed out on X that this typically reflects large ETF outflows and sustained selling pressure from the US-based investors, which has put pressure on a discount to appear.
These conditions are not unusual and have appeared nearly every market downturn or larger range. Thus, this broader market recovery needs the support of ETF inflows and renewed bidding from the US investors to surge higher.
For this reason, monitoring the Coinbase premium and discount is important to know when the price flips around. A stronger directional trend combined with steep discounts or premiums often reinforces the prevailing market move.
A Relief Rally Could Buy The Market Time Until October
Bitcoin has now broken below its April 2025 low, placing the market at an important inflection point. The CEO and founder of ITC_Crypto, Benjamin Cowen, noted that if the price fails to bounce soon, this could turn into a difficult midterm year. However, if the price can bounce back, it would likely provide the market several months of relief, pushing price action to October and potentially aligning with a more durable bottoming process.
According to Benjamin, the bearish narrative has been dominant for an extended period, which increases the probability of a countertrend rally that could temporarily restore confidence among bulls. Meanwhile, Benjamin has cautioned against attempting to trade such moves.
Furthermore, countertrend rallies often occur unexpectedly, not when market participants are actively anticipating them. A sweep of prior lows would offer short-term relief, even during the bull market. In 2014, 2018, and 2022, when BTC broke below the 100-week Simple Moving Average (SMA), the price moved straight down to the 200-week SMA before any meaningful relief occurred.
From a broader perspective, Benjamin emphasized that the optimal time to sell BTC was late last year, not during panic-driven sell-offs in a midterm year. His focus remains on the larger cycle, suggesting that late Q3 to early Q4 will be a more favorable window to move real money back into the market. Until then, it is just traders trying to make money during difficult times, attempting to trade the support and resistance levels.
