Charting Crypto is a quarterly publication from Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode that provides an in-depth view of crypto markets, including deep dives into onchain analytics and advanced metrics for bitcoin and ether. Below is a snippet of the report.
Charting Crypto Q1 2026: Fresh Footing
Charting Crypto goes beyond the headlines and digs deep into market data and onchain analytics to provide institutional investors with the insights to understand the trends that are shaping the markets today, and how they may impact the dynamic cryptoeconomy going forward.
January 26, 2026
Key takeaways
We have a constructive outlook to start the new year, even though the clouds from last year’s liquidations still persist and geopolitical risks are on the rise. Nevertheless, there are several reasons for optimism in Q1:
- Macro tailwinds: Inflation is holding around 2.7% (Dec CPI) and economic growth looks strong (GDPNow ~5.3% for Q4 2025 GDP growth rate). We expect the Fed to still deliver ~50 bps of cuts that is currently priced in by Fed funds futures. This should be supportive for risk assets and crypto.
- BTC stands out: We’re more constructive on bitcoin than on many altcoins which are still recovering from October’s drawdown. This view is echoed by this quarter's survey where most respondents see BTC as undervalued.
- Key risks: A sharper-than-expected labor market downturn or geopolitical escalation (especially energy disruptions) could hit sentiment. The investor quarterly survey helps map positioning, risk tolerance, and cycle views to navigate these crosswinds.
Written by
- David Duong, CFA - Head of Research at Coinbase Institutional & Glassnode
FRESH FOOTING
Our outlook on crypto markets is constructive to start the new year, even though the clouds from last year’s leverage-fueled liquidations have not cleared entirely and geopolitical risks are on the rise. Nevertheless, there are several reasons for optimism in Q1, in our view. First, the macro picture looks favorable. Inflation held steady at 2.7% in the latest December CPI reading, despite lingering fears about the effects of tariffs. Meanwhile, the economy looks to be on solid footing. Case in point: as of January 14, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model projected that the real GDP growth rate was a robust 5.3% for the fourth quarter of 2025. While the future direction of monetary policy looks less certain, as evidenced by the wide spectrum of different viewpoints, we still believe the Fed will deliver on the two rate cuts (totaling 50 basis points) currently priced into Fed funds futures, which should provide a tailwind for risk assets broadly and crypto specifically.
We’re particularly constructive on bitcoin, as crypto’s leading asset appears to be on more solid footing than many altcoins that are still dealing with the aftermath of last October’s big selloff. As seen in the results of this quarter’s survey, we’re not alone in being bullish on bitcoin. In fact, a sizable majority of respondents feel that BTC is undervalued.
Of course, risks still remain. Although the economy appears to be in fine shape, the jobs market is cooling. In 2025, the US economy added 584,000 jobs, down from two million in 2024, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Some of this moderation is likely the result of increased use of AI, but if the employment market were to take a significant turn for the worse, investors may become more cautious. Elsewhere, geopolitical tensions have flared up in several parts of the world, and any escalation of unrest, particularly one that disrupts energy markets, could negatively impact investor sentiment. To help navigate these crosswinds, we’re pleased to include the results of our quarterly survey of 148 institutional and independent investors. Their insights shed light on market sentiment, risk tolerance, where we are in the market cycle, and more.
After the survey results, we provide the latest updates of the market data and onchain analytics that should help investors not only better understand the trends that are shaping markets today, but how such dynamics may affect the cryptoeconomy going forward. We hope you find the publication useful as you navigate crypto markets, and we welcome your feedback and questions.
David Duong, Head of Institutional Research, Coinbase
Glassnode Analyst
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