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Charting Crypto Q4 2025: Navigating Uncertainty

Charting Crypto goes beyond the headlines and digs deep into market data and onchain analytics to provide institutional investors with the insights to understand the trends that are shaping the markets today, and how they may impact the dynamic cryptoeconomy going forward.

October 16, 2025

Market Intelligence

Key takeaways

We have a cautiously optimistic stance for 4Q25. We believe that the crypto bull market has room to run, but we’re more cautious after the events   of October 10. We still see resilient liquidity conditions, a strong macro backdrop, and supportive regulatory dynamics.

While the labor market appears to be cooling, fears of a sharp contraction in the economy look overblown, in our view.
Regulation is on the right track. With the signing of the GENIUS Act, we now have a clear framework for stablecoins, and we believe the CLARITY Act, which would define digital-asset classifications and establish clear jurisdictional authority, will be next.
The current setup looks particularly favorable for bitcoin, in our view, while positioning in altcoins calls for a more cautious approach.

Written by

David Duong, CFA - Head of Research at Coinbase Institutional & Glassnode

Charting Crypto is a quarterly publication from Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode that provides an in-depth view of crypto markets, including deep dives into onchain analytics and advanced metrics for bitcoin and ether. Below is a snippet of the report.

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NAVIGATING UNCERTAINTY

Heading into Q4, we had a constructive outlook on crypto markets, but the leverage flush on October 10 has led us to urge some caution. Nevertheless, we anticipate continued support from robust liquidity, a favorable macroeconomic environment, and encouraging regulatory developments. Bitcoin, in particular, may be able to outperform market expectations on the back of macro tailwinds.

On the policy front, we expect the Federal Reserve to deliver two more rate cuts this quarter, which may incentivize investors to put to work some of the $7 trillion that is currently parked in money market funds.

Meanwhile, we think it's still very likely that the US could pass a comprehensive crypto market structure bill, but the timeline is less clear, particularly given the current US government shutdown. Regardless, we are confident that clear, sensible regulation is on the horizon, and that it will usher in a new chapter of crypto innovation and adoption.

Looking at the supply/demand picture, it’s hard to overstate the impact that digital asset treasury companies (DATs) have had on markets this year. Bitcoin DATs now own approximately 3.5% of the token’s circulating supply, and   the leading ETH-focused DATs own 3.7% of ether’s circulating supply.

Although the valuations of most DATs, as measured by Market Cap to Net Asset Value (mNAV), have fallen recently, we believe DATs will continue to provide a meaningful source of demand in the quarter ahead.

While our overall outlook is a positive one, we recognize that the landscape for investors is still somewhat challenging. Important economic data points have been unavailable since the government shut down; the positive effects of liquidity may tail off in November; and the long-term trajectory of the DAT business model is an open question.

To help investors gain valuable insights into how their peers are navigating these uncertain waters, we conducted a survey of more than 120 institutional and independent investors to gauge their sentiment, risk tolerance, views about the market cycle, and more. We’re pleased to present the results of this survey at the start of this edition of Charting Crypto.

After the survey results, we provide the latest updates of the market data and onchain analytics that can help investors gain insight into the trends that are shaping markets today, and how they may impact the dynamic cryptoeconomy going forward.

We hope you find the publication useful as you navigate crypto markets, and we welcome your feedback and questions.

David Duong, Head of Institutional Research, Coinbase

Glassnode Analyst

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