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Politics Prognosemärkte
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
Before Jun 1, 2026
Before May 15, 2026
251.550 $ Volumen (24h)
How long will the government shutdown last?
At least 100 days
At least 110 days
124.709 $ Volumen (24h)
US-Iran nuclear deal?
Before August
Before June
95.134 $ Volumen (24h)
Who will be confirmed as Fed chair?
Kevin Warsh
Rick Rieder
51.689 $ Volumen (24h)
How many Gold Cards will Trump issue before May?
0
1 to 5
45.745 $ Volumen (24h)
Kash Patel out as FBI Director?
Before Jul 1, 2026
Before Jun 1, 2026
39.237 $ Volumen (24h)
Will Trump be impeached?
Before Jan 1, 2028
Before Jan 1, 2027
38.496 $ Volumen (24h)
Who will be Trump's next Attorney General?
Lee Zeldin
Todd Blanche
37.354 $ Volumen (24h)
Will the SAVE Act become law?
- 100 USD → $833
- 100 USD → $112
34.956 $ Volumen (24h)
When will DHS be funded again?
Before Jun 1, 2026
Before May 22, 2026
31.940 $ Volumen (24h)
Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?
Lee Zeldin
Pete Hegseth
27.027 $ Volumen (24h)
How many times will Trump visit Mar-a-Lago in Apr 2026?
1
0
25.002 $ Volumen (24h)
Trump's approval rating on Apr 24, 2026?
Below 41.1
41.1 to 41.3
21.689 $ Volumen (24h)
How many House votes to expel Eric Swalwell?
Above 230
Above 218
20.407 $ Volumen (24h)
Keir Starmer Out?
Before Sep 1, 2026
Before Jul 1, 2026
16.376 $ Volumen (24h)
Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next?
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
Pete Hegseth
15.227 $ Volumen (24h)
Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
John Brennan
James Comey
15.119 $ Volumen (24h)
Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran in 2026?
- 100 USD → $500
- 100 USD → $123
14.268 $ Volumen (24h)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense?
Before Sep 1, 2026
Before Aug 1, 2026
12.902 $ Volumen (24h)
Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
Before 2027
Before August
11.710 $ Volumen (24h)
Will proof of citizenship be required for federal voter registration?
Before Jan 1, 2027
Before May 1, 2026
11.136 $ Volumen (24h)
How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (4/19 - 4/25)
- 100 USD → $103
- 100 USD → $2,500
8.670 $ Volumen (24h)
Will Donald Trump visit Iran?
Before Jan 1, 2027
Before Jun 1, 2026
8.460 $ Volumen (24h)
Which bills will become law in 2026?
Housing for the 21st Century Act
Critical-minerals stockpile
8.428 $ Volumen (24h)
When will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Before Jun 1, 2026
Before May 15, 2026
8.168 $ Volumen (24h)
How much will the US acquire Greenland for?
$0 / No Acquisition
$600 billion to $899 billion
7.747 $ Volumen (24h)
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (4/19-4/25)
- 100 USD → $1,111
- 100 USD → $109
6.811 $ Volumen (24h)
When will Trump visit China?
Before Jun 1, 2026
Before May 15, 2026
5.995 $ Volumen (24h)
Will Kash Patel sue The Atlantic in Apr 2026?
- 100 USD → $156
- 100 USD → $238
5.554 $ Volumen (24h)
Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?
- 100 USD → $769
- 100 USD → $114
5.415 $ Volumen (24h)
Powell out as Chair?
- 100 USD → $4,762
- 100 USD → $101
Mai 1 · 2:00AM
Who will leave Congress before July?
Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick
Cory Mills
4.342 $ Volumen (24h)
