Donald Trump’s Odds Surge Ahead of Kamala Harris on Polymarket, Prompting Manipulation Concerns

Donald Trump’s odds of defeating Kamala Harris surged on Polymarket this week, raising concerns about potential market manipulation just weeks ahead of the U.S. presidential election.

Trump, the Republican nominee, currently holds a substantial lead over the vice president on the decentralized prediction platform, sparking debates about the integrity of these betting markets.

Donald Trump’s Questionably Leads Kamala Harris on Polymarket

According to Polymarket’s official “Presidential Election Winner 2024” poll, bettors favor Trump over Harris with 62.1 percent to 37.9 percent.

This dramatic shift in odds has raised eyebrows as it coincides with a significant bet from one user.

Polymarket’s real-time odds are starting to price in a Trump win, which could explain the recent rally in stocks and crypto. Markets are reacting—who do you think takes it? pic.twitter.com/I3yy8cXRg8

— HZ (@MFHoz) October 18, 2024

A bettor known as Fredi9999 reportedly placed a massive $20 million wager on Trump, which has skewed the market and raised concerns about the validity of Polymarket’s odds.

In contrast, national polls paint a much closer picture of the race, with Harris leading Trump 48.5 percent to 46.2 percent, respectively.

The controversy surrounding political prediction markets has intensified as Election Day approaches.

Billionaire and X CEO Elon Musk recently claimed, albeit falsely, that such platforms are “more accurate than polls” because “actual money” is involved.

However, critics argue that large sums of money can distort the results.

Several U.S. lawmakers have voiced their opposition to political betting platforms.

In an August 2024 letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Senators Elizabeth Warren, Richard Blumenthal, and Jeff Merkley, among others, expressed concerns that big money bets could influence the outcome of the election.

“Election gambling fundamentally cheapens the sanctity of our democratic process,” they wrote. “Political bets change the motivations behind each vote, replacing political convictions with financial calculations,” they added.

Could Donald Trump’s Polymarket Odds Be Manipulated Before Election Day?

Just last month, prediction market Kalshi won a highly-publicized court battle allowing it to sell political event contracts. However, a federal appeals court has since expedited a legal review of that decision.

According to Morning Brew, Kalshi has pulled in over $12 million on bets related to Harris and Trump.

On Kalshi’s platform, Trump holds a 57 percent lead over Harris at 43 percent. But experts warn that these numbers might not reflect reality.

Brandon Carl, Head of AI and Strategy at Smarsh Inc., cautioned that these betting markets could drive “herd behavior,” as people tend to follow perceived winners rather than true odds.

All political views aside…

I worry that betting markets like Polymarket end up used to influence stock markets as well as political outcomes.

There were reportedly two whale bets totaling $4 million betting on Donald Trump. It moved the betting markets.

Subsequently stocks… pic.twitter.com/yzNfZLsiud

— Brandon Carl (@brandonjcarl) October 17, 2024

“The great danger is that people assume that betting markets are a reflection of reality,” Carl said. “But betting markets are still markets, which means they are prone to manipulation. The incentives certainly exist.”

As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, questions about the legitimacy of prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi remain unresolved, leaving many to wonder just how much influence big bets will have on the final outcome.