Toncoin Plunges 9% After $3 Rally—Can Telegram’s 800M Users Save It?

Toncoin (TON) plunged 9% to $2.78 after a sharp rally to $3.06 reversed, as bearish pressure overwhelmed buyers despite $148M in DeFi growth.

The pullback follows a brief surge driven by Telegram’s adoption and institutional interest. Now, with the MACD and RSI turning bearish, traders are eyeing $2.70 as the next key support level.

Telegram’s 800M Users Fuel TON Adoption

TON’s biggest advantage is its deep integration with Telegram, the messaging app with over 800 million active users, where it serves as the exclusive blockchain infrastructure for the platform’s Mini App ecosystem and as its native currency.

$TON is very broad ecosystem with many paths for Community to explore!

– Memepads: some of the largest Memepads in the world are built on TON & Telegram, Like Blum or PocketFi

– Variety of DEX’es to choose, that are also accessible as MiniApps on Telegram, such as DeDust &… pic.twitter.com/aySo8ddqsA

— Viktor 🧡 (@s0meone_u_know) May 20, 2025

This partnership has enabled the launch of TON Space, a non-custodial crypto wallet now available in the U.S., allowing users to buy and send cryptocurrencies directly within Telegram via MoonPay, a leading fiat-to-crypto payment processor.

The RWA narrative just got a huge push as @librecap & TON Foundation are tokenizing $500M of Telegram bonds on TON Blockchain via the Telegram Bond Fund ($TBF)! 🔥

Key points:
💼$500M in Telegram bonds on TON
🏦Access for institutional & accredited investors
⚡Powered by Libre… pic.twitter.com/nXOdSsatKN

— TON 💎 (@ton_blockchain) April 30, 2025

The TON Foundation, the organization behind the blockchain, has partnered with Libre, a financial infrastructure platform, to launch a $500 million fund dedicated to tokenizing real-world assets (RWAs) like government bonds. This move positions TON as a key player in the growing RWA sector, which bridges traditional finance and blockchain.

DeFi activity is also on the rise, with TVL reaching $148.77 million.

Key projects like STON.fi, EVAA, and Factorial are driving utility, while Telegram trading bots (like Blum) account for 25% of on-chain transactions. The upcoming integration of Ethena’s USDe stablecoin could unlock stable yields for Telegram’s massive user base.

To handle increasing demand, TON’s developers have rolled out key upgrades. Broxus, a core development team, introduced TON Factory, a toolkit designed to optimize smart contract performance.

Developer engagement continues to accelerate.

Broxus launched TON Factory to fast-track TVM scaling.

A recent Tact smart contract challenge attracted 1,393 participants.

While other chains struggle with developer retention, TON attracts builders in record numbers: pic.twitter.com/2kGg4HXPCy

— Ownership Coin (@ownershipcoin) May 27, 2025

The original TON Bridge, which facilitated cross-chain transfers, has been retired after facilitating over 100 million TON transfers. It has been replaced by more secure and scalable solutions from LayerZero and Axelar, two leading blockchain interoperability platforms.

Despite price fluctuations, TON’s fundamentals remain robust. Daily network income recently reached $17.39 million, reflecting heavy usage of DeFi and dApps.

The broader TON ecosystem has generated $2.5 million in revenue as of July 2025, and the TON Foundation’s developer grant program, launched in May 2025, is accelerating the deployment of new projects.

🇦🇪 Update: UAE gov has confirmed you can’t get a Golden Visa by investing in crypto.

Bummer for $TON buyers, it’s ~6% down from today’s high and the news came out around an hour ago. 🫨 https://t.co/G2BydgTMFJ pic.twitter.com/LXxcqyh2ZE

— Sanjay (@SanjayWeb3) July 6, 2025

A July rumor about UAE Golden Visas via TON staking was debunked, but expansion efforts continue. TON Foundation CEO Max Crown (formerly of MoonPay) is expected to strengthen regulatory alignment.

Toncoin Faces Bearish Pressure After Blow-Off Top, Despite Brief Buyer Engagement

Toncoin (TON/USDT) is trading at $2.787, retracing from a sharp blow-off top near $3.05 on July 6. The explosive move upward occurred over a handful of hourly candles, followed by an equally swift rejection — a classic pattern of liquidity-driven euphoria followed by supply shock. Since then, price action has shifted into a descending channel, marked by consistently lower highs and failed bounce attempts.

Momentum indicators support the bearish trend. The MACD has crossed bearishly and flattened below the zero line, indicating a loss of upside energy and the emergence of sustained seller control. The RSI at 37.39 confirms weakening demand, drifting into oversold conditions without any signal of reversal momentum or bullish divergence.

Volume footprint data offers deeper insight into market behavior. At 11:00 UTC, a sizeable +38.86K delta reflected a wave of buyer initiative. However, this activity failed to establish higher ground.

Instead of continuation, the following candles saw sharp negative deltas (–8.61K and –2.83K), not due to passive absorption, but rather increased market selling into support. This indicates that buyers lacked the conviction or size to sustain control, and sellers became increasingly aggressive as price hovered near key levels.

TON’s failure to convert demand into directional progress leaves it vulnerable. Without a decisive push above $2.88–$2.90, the descending structure is likely to break lower, with potential downside targets at $2.70 and $2.68. Further buyer hesitation could accelerate the decline.