Polymarket Uncovers ‘French Connection’ Behind Surge in Trump Bets

A French trader placed more than $28 million in bets on Polymarket, favoring Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

The platform confirmed on Thursday that four high-profile accounts, initially suspected to belong to separate individuals, are actually controlled by this single trader. The massive bets have drawn scrutiny, particularly due to the concentration of funds in favor of the former president amid a closely contested race.

French Whale Spends $28 Million on Pro-Trump Bets in 2024 Election

The trader’s accounts were reportedly funded through the U.S.-based exchange Kraken, although Polymarket emphasized that no evidence suggests an attempt to manipulate the market.

Top Trump betters. Source: Polymarket

The New York Times stated that the company worked with investigations firm Nardello & Company to ensure transparency and said third-party experts found no signs of market manipulation.

Despite this, the size of the bets has raised eyebrows, especially as Trump’s odds on Polymarket have grown. This contrasts most national polls, which show a much closer race between Trump and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris.

A long-winded and winding update on Fredi9999 — the person or entity — who is singlehandedly rocketing up the price of Trump on prediction markets around the world.

Spoiler alert: I managed to make contact with him, I think, and he blocked me after a few minutes. Sensitive… pic.twitter.com/HYlZpUfk2k

— Domer (@Domahhhh) October 16, 2024

Trump’s supporters have pointed to Polymarket’s widening odds as a sign of momentum, though experts caution that betting markets and opinion polls serve different purposes.

Polymarket clarified this in a statement, noting that prediction markets measure the likelihood of an event rather than public intent like polls do.

Elon Musk, a high-profile supporter of Trump and one of the major financial backers of his presidential bid, recently weighed in on the accuracy of betting markets.

The Tesla CEO posted on his social media platform, X, that betting markets are “more accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line.”

Trump now leading Kamala by 3% in betting markets. More accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line. https://t.co/WrsqZ2z8pp

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 7, 2024

While many in the political space may agree with Musk’s perspective, Polymarket clarified the distinction between prediction markets and political polls.

“Prediction markets are not opinion polls—they measure the likelihood of an event occurring rather than the percentage of people who intend to take an action, such as voting,” Polymarket said in its statement.

They argued that the confusion has contributed to spreading misinformation about their platform and others like it.

As of Thursday, the trader’s total position on the presidential election was valued at $28.6 million. The accounts, under names like “Fredi9999,” “Theo4,” “PrincessCaro,” and “Michie,” rank among the top five holders on the pro-Trump side of Polymarket’s 2024 election market.

Additionally, the trader has wagered more than $7 million on Trump winning the popular vote over Harris. The company also disclosed that the trader has agreed not to open new accounts without notifying the platform.

As Election Interest Grows, Can Platforms Like Kalshi and Interactive Brokers Fill Polymarket’s Void?

Polymarket’s rise in prominence has coincided with the growing role of political betting markets in the 2024 election cycle.

Despite its popularity, Polymarket remains off-limits to U.S. traders due to a 2022 settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which resulted in a ban on U.S. operations.

However, the political betting space is active, with other platforms filling the void. For instance, Kalshi, another betting platform, recently launched presidential election contracts following a favorable federal court ruling in Washington, D.C. However, the CFTC is still challenging its right to host such bets.

Meanwhile, Interactive Brokers has also rolled out various political betting contracts as interest in election-related gambling continues to rise.