Polymarket Betting Shifts Towards Trump Amid RFK Jr.’s Potential Withdrawal

The race for the U.S. presidency has taken yet another turn as betting odds on Polymarket have shifted in favor of former President Donald Trump.

The shift comes in the wake of signals from Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s independent campaign that he may be preparing to withdraw and potentially endorse Trump.

On Tuesday, Polymarket saw a swing in Trump’s favor, with bettors predicting a 52% chance of Trump winning the presidential election, edging out Vice President Kamala Harris, who holds a 47% chance.

Just a day earlier, Harris was slightly ahead, with both candidates almost evenly matched.

Kennedy Withdrawal Impacts Trump’s Winning Odds

The potential withdrawal of Kennedy appears to have influenced these betting patterns, particularly in critical battleground states like Pennsylvania.

Previously, Harris was favored to win in Pennsylvania, but the odds have now shifted to reflect a nearly even race between her and Trump.

Trump’s lead in the odds is up to 5%. pic.twitter.com/uDguZkd116

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) August 21, 2024

Despite the momentum on Polymarket, other platforms tell a different story.

PredictIt, a New Zealand-based betting platform, still shows Harris as the frontrunner, with a 56% chance of victory compared to Trump’s 47%.

Data from the Election Betting Odds tracker, which compiles information from multiple sources, indicates a tightening race.

Trump now holds a 49.3% chance of winning in November, just slightly ahead of Harris, who has a 49.1% chance.

This marks a dramatic shift from earlier in the week when Harris led by more than five percentage points.

A key difference between these platforms is their accessibility.

While Polymarket accepts bets from a global audience, PredictIt is limited to U.S. residents over 18.

Polymarket Under Scrutiny as Trading Volume Surges

Earlier this month, five United States Senators and three House representatives have called for a ban on betting activities linked to the upcoming 2024 presidential election.

The bipartisan group consists of prominent figures such as Senators Jeff Merkley, Richard Blumenthal, Elizabeth Warren, and Representatives Jamie Raskin and John Sarbanes, among others.

In a letter addressed to Rostin Behnam, Chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the lawmakers highlighted the perilous influence these betting markets could exert on the electoral landscape.

The group expressed concerns over the possibility of billionaires leveraging large wagers to sway election outcomes, thereby eroding public trust in the democratic process.

The legislators underscored that elections should not be reduced to mere profit-making ventures, as this would fundamentally compromise the integrity of the electoral system.

“Political bets change the motivations behind each vote, replacing political convictions with financial calculations.”

Launched in 2020, Polymarket operates as a decentralized prediction market platform where users bet on the outcomes of real-world events using cryptocurrencies.

The platform uses the USDC stablecoin, allowing participants to buy and sell shares in forecasts related to the likelihood of future events.

Polymarket has recently achieved record-breaking trading volumes.

As interest in the US election grows, the platform reached $1 billion in monthly trading volume for the first time, with $343 million recorded in July alone.