No Evidence of Market Manipulation in Election Bets, Polymarket Says

Polymarket responded to claims of market manipulation after a user reportedly placed millions in bets favoring Republican nominee Donald Trump in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as reported by Bloomberg.

Market Manipulation Claims Investigated by Polymarket

According to Bloomberg, Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market platform, traced the hefty wagers back to a French citizen working in the financial sector.

“Based on the investigation, we understand that this individual is taking a directional position based on personal views of the election,” the company told Bloomberg.

They added, “Our investigation has not identified any information to suggest this user manipulated or attempted to manipulate the market. This user has agreed to not open any further without notice.”

Polymarket’s statement followed reports suggesting that a user known as “Fredi9999” held a substantial stake in election bets, raising concerns over the poll’s reliability.

Polymarket and Election Betting Controversy

Bloomberg cited an anonymous source stating that Polymarket is in the process of re-checking user details on its platform, particularly for those placing large wagers, to ensure rule compliance.

Friday morning saw Donald Trump leading over Kamala Harris in Polymarket’s official “Presidential Election Winner 2024” poll, with 65.8% of bets favoring him over Harris’s 34.2%.

Latest Election Odds

🟥 Trump • 65.8% chance (+4.5%)
🟦 Harris • 34.2% chance (-4.6%)

10 days until the election. pic.twitter.com/HwrMKjeKUh

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) October 25, 2024

However, national polls show the former reality television star and the current U.S. vice president in a tight race as Election Day approaches, now only ten days away.

Trump has been an active supporter of cryptocurrency, even launching his family’s platform, World Liberty Financial, during the campaign.

Harris, on the other hand, has vowed to enact fair crypto regulations should she win this upcoming November – though has yet to provide full details of just exactly how those policies would look.

X CEO and tech billionaire Elon Musk has falsely claimed in the past that prediction markets can be “more accurate” than traditional polling methods due to “actual money” being involved.

Meanwhile, some U.S. lawmakers have pushed for a ban on political election betting, arguing that such bets could distort voter motivations.

“Election gambling fundamentally cheapens the sanctity of our democratic process,” lawmakers wrote. “Political bets change the motivations behind each vote, replacing political convictions with financial calculations.”

As Election Day approaches, Polymarket’s oversight on election bets will likely remain under scrutiny amid ongoing debates on the ethics of political betting.