[LIVE] Bitcoin Price Tracker: Is BTC Going To Hold or Fall Below $100K Today?

Bitcoin is facing significant pressure on November 4, sliding below $103,000 after losing the crucial 85th percentile cost basis (~$109K), a level that has historically acted as strong support during macro-driven pullbacks.

BTC now trades around $103K, with analysts focusing on the next major threshold at the 75th percentile cost basis (~$99K), a zone that previously halted deeper corrections. The weakness persists despite macro conditions that should have supported risk assets.

Bitcoin has lost support at the 85th percentile cost basis (~$109K) and is now hovering near $103.5K.
The next key level sits around the 75th percentile cost basis (~$99K), which has historically provided support during pullbacks.

📉https://t.co/2geS82B0iR pic.twitter.com/IPsYmBbxyl

— glassnode (@glassnode) November 4, 2025

Crypto continues to underperform equities even after the Federal Reserve’s 25 bps rate cut and its plan to end quantitative tightening (QT) by December.

While the S&P 500 is up 1.66% over the past month and 16.76% YTD, Bitcoin has fallen over 15% in the last 30 days and is up just 4.2% YTD. Liquidity is expanding globally — U.S. M2 has grown by more than $2 trillion since mid-2023 — yet almost none of it is reaching crypto.

ETF inflows remain stalled, digital asset treasury activity across major tokens has dried up, and more than $19 billion in leverage was flushed around the last FOMC event.

Wintermute’s November 2025 report notes that a return of ETF or DAT flows will be essential for any meaningful recovery.

Altcoins have suffered even steeper declines. Over the past week, gaming tokens are down 21%, layer-2s 19%, memecoins 18%, and mid- and small-caps 15–16%. Only AI and DePIN tokens show relative resilience, dropping just 3–4% on the strength of TAO.

Analysts warn this downturn is not a typical “buy the dip” setup but a broader test of liquidity resilience, worsened by the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which the CBO estimates is erasing $7–14 billion in economic output.

On-chain data shows this fiscal freeze is already constricting Bitcoin’s liquidity profile. The key question now is whether Bitcoin can defend the $100K psychological barrier, or if deteriorating conditions will force a retest of $99K support. Stay tuned for live price updates as volatility intensifies.

Stay tuned for live price updates and real-time market reactions as volatility accelerates.

BTC Drops Below $103K – Is Sub-$100K Coming?