Kamala Harris and Donald Trump Tied at 49% Odds on Polymarket

Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are now deadlocked at 49% odds on Polymarket as bettors try to forecast the next U.S. president.

The race represents the largest betting pool on the crypto prediction platform, with over $541 million at stake.

The development follows Harris’s announcement of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate, a choice that surprised many Polymarket users who had expected Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro.

As of the latest, both Harris and Walz, along with Trump and his running mate, J.D. Vance from Ohio, were campaigning in Michigan.

Kamala Harris is now tied with Trump. pic.twitter.com/04dQx3kWBl

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) August 7, 2024

Harris’s Odds Continue to Increase

Harris’s odds have been on an upward trajectory since July 21, when US President Joe Biden withdrew from the race.

At that time, Harris’s odds were a modest 30%, while Trump led with 64%.

Biden, recovering from COVID-19 amidst rumors of his withdrawal, saw his chances plummet to 7%.

Prediction markets like Polymarket are often regarded as valuable indicators of probabilities and market sentiment, differing from traditional public opinion polls.

However, participants in these markets are self-selecting, and Polymarket, in particular, attracts a heavy crypto-user base, leveraging Polygon, a layer-2 scaling solution on the Ethereum blockchain.

Polymarket’s odds are known for their swift response to breaking news, as demonstrated by the platform’s reaction to the recent assassination attempt on Trump.

Conversely, Harris’s unexpected pick of Walz over Shapiro highlights that prediction markets can occasionally falter.

Polymarket has seen a surge in traffic and popularity, particularly driven by the presidential race and U.S. political events.

As interest in the US election grows, the platform reached $1 billion in monthly trading volume for the first time, with $343 million recorded in July alone.

This marks a significant increase of over 200% from the $111 million in June and more than 440% compared to $63 million in May 2024.

Despite these impressive trading volumes, Polymarket has struggled to generate sufficient revenue.

US Senators Ask for Ban on Election Betting

Five United States Senators and three House representatives have called for a ban on betting activities linked to the upcoming 2024 presidential election.

The bipartisan group consists of prominent figures such as Senators Jeff Merkley, Richard Blumenthal, Elizabeth Warren, and Representatives Jamie Raskin and John Sarbanes, among others.

In a recent letter addressed to Rostin Behnam, Chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the lawmakers highlighted the perilous influence these betting markets could exert on the electoral landscape.

The group expressed concerns over the possibility of billionaires leveraging large wagers to sway election outcomes, thereby eroding public trust in the democratic process.

The legislators underscored that elections should not be reduced to mere profit-making ventures, as this would fundamentally compromise the integrity of the electoral system.

“Political bets change the motivations behind each vote, replacing political convictions with financial calculations.”

By permitting the commodification of U.S. elections, they argued, the very essence of democracy stands to be undermined.