Data Signals Imminent Altcoin Season Amid Steady Bitcoin Dominance

Several analysts on microblogging platform X have recently highlighted different data points indicating that altcoin season (altseason) could soon be upon us.

On February 15, trader/analyst Rekt Capital (@RektCapital) shared a projections chart to suggest that Bitcoin’s current dip could be part of a final “retrace” or consolidation period before the halving on April 19.

Since Bitcoin bootstraps the entire market by virtue of its popularity, it’s likely to piggyback the biggest altcoins by market capitalization to new heights.

#BTC

There is only one last Pre-Halving Retrace left (dark blue circle)$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/Q6qF1ieEEL

— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) February 15, 2024

In another recent tweet, Bitcoin fan and independent analyst Stockmoney Lizards (@StockmoneyL), thinks he sees some bullish cup-and-handle patterns in the altcoin market’s capitalization metrics. If history repeats itself, this could be mounting towards a potential 10x bull run, the analyst implied.

Many #Altcoins are about to skyrocket in next #Altseason. We are close. pic.twitter.com/1uvRQdWqzU

— Stockmoney Lizards (@StockmoneyL) February 18, 2024

Market analysis by Santiment on Tuesday suggests retail traders bought a lot of the dollar-pegged stablecoin Tether lately. Since stablecoins present a blockchain-native way to use dollars to buy crypto, the move could signal retail’s readiness to buy the current dip.

🤑 Small moves from mid-tier traders often work as excellent signals for spotting market pivots from the crowd. In the past 2 weeks, #stablecoin holders with $10K to $100K:

📈 Added $44.3M in $USDT
📉 Dropped $20.6M in $USDC

🔗 Link to explore our chart: https://t.co/5AfbILqe1F pic.twitter.com/82RhKnqXzI

— Santiment (@santimentfeed) February 20, 2024

Finally, independent analysis by altcoin fan Sjuul (AltCryptoGems) said that several leading altcoins have the same funding rate as Bitcoin, indicating a market correction, or as he calls it, a “buy-the-dip opportunity.”

Funding rate is mildly high for $BTC, and especially for some alts.

So we could expect some correction across the board. In my opinion, it's the buy-the-dip opportunity we are all looking for. pic.twitter.com/8J1Sf3uo8J

— Sjuul | AltCryptoGems (@AltCryptoGems) February 20, 2024

However, a real-time graph offered by the Blockchain Association suggests that Altseason is not here yet. The Blockchain Association is a US crypto trade group that lobbies Washington for clear and flexible crypto regulation.

According to its Altcoin Season Index, the altcoin market’s current score is 59, meaning only 59% of the leading altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin. Altseason arrives when the figure is 75 or above, says the Association. Bitcoin season refers to when only 25% of the leading alternative cryptocurrencies are outperforming the market leader.

The Bitcoin Halving’s Effect on Altcoin Season

When Bitcoin does well, everybody does well. Historical patterns suggest that Bitcoin’s halving narrative could lead to market-wide gains, but we’re looking at a different crypto landscape to any that came before. Nowadays, there is increased regulatory scrutiny. The recent launch of US SEC-approved Bitcoin investment products further complicates the narrative.

The halving refers to a quadrennial event predetermined by Bitcoin’s code which cuts miners’ rewards in half. Miners use energy-intensive hardware to break cryptographic codes in order to validate groups of transactions called “blocks”. Confirming a block rewards the miner with new Bitcoin, some of which it will hold and some of which it will release onto the market.

Block mining initially paid 50 Bitcoins on the network’s launch in 2009. Today that figure is 6.25, and after April 19, it will be 3.125 BTC.

The halving has historically caused crypto rallies. This is because the constricted supply of new Bitcoins has to meet a consistent demand for the number one cryptocurrency. In other words, when supply is cut in half but demand remains the same, price goes up.

Recent analysis by asset manager Fidelity, which issues the second largest regulated spot Bitcoin investment product on the market, suggests that Bitcoin’s price needs to hit $80,000 by the day of the halving for mining revenue to stay the same for all miners. If it doesn’t do so, some miners will inevitably be operating at a loss.