Bitfinex: BTC Price Could Touch $115K by July on Institutional Demand, ETF Flows

Bitcoin could climb to $115,000 or higher by early July, with institutional demand and ETF inflows driving the rally, according to analysts at Bitfinex.

In their latest market outlook shared with Cryptonews.com, Bitfinex analysts flagged this Friday’s upcoming U.S. jobs report as a potential catalyst in a broader macro environment that may accelerate Federal Reserve rate cut expectations.

While the labor data alone won’t move Bitcoin, it could contribute to a chain of macro factors, such as disinflation signals and dollar weakness, that support an earlier Fed pivot, which would likely favor risk assets, including BTC.

BTC Price Could Touch $115,000 in Bullish Scenario

The analysts said that BTC price could hit $115,000 by early July this year.

“In a bullish scenario, driven by strong institutional interest and ETF inflows, Bitcoin could touch $115,000 or higher by early July 2025,” the analysts said.

“Although the pullback has caused some concern, investors still feel optimistic. On the downside, we see $95,000–$97,000 as a key accumulation zone.”

The U.S. May Jobs Report, due Friday, is projected to show 125,000 to 130,000 new nonfarm payrolls, down from April’s 177,000.

The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.2%, with average hourly earnings projected to rise by 0.2% to 0.3% month-over-month.

A weaker-than-expected report could reinforce the disinflation narrative and push the Fed closer to rate cuts—a positive backdrop for Bitcoin.

In contrast, a strong report could delay rate cuts and boost the dollar, potentially weighing on BTC.

Currently, Bitcoin trades near $105,000. Bitfinex analysts believe maintaining support above this level could open the door to testing the $120,000–$125,000 range in June, although they caution that no single event will trigger this move alone.

If the labor data surprises to the upside, Bitcoin may revisit support levels around $102,000 or lower, the analysts said.

The report will likely influence short-term market action, but it remains just one component in the broader macro picture shaping Bitcoin’s trajectory.

BTC Eyes Breakout as Bitcoin Supply Shrinks 30%

The available Bitcoin supply has fallen sharply, setting the stage for potential price surges as institutional demand builds, according to Sygnum Bank’s latest Monthly Investment Outlook for June 2025.

Over the past 18 months, liquid Bitcoin supply has dropped by 30%, driven by rising institutional adoption and an increase in acquisition vehicles such as exchange-traded funds (ETFs), the report stated.

In total, one million BTC have moved off exchanges during this period — typically a bullish signal, as coins are often withdrawn for long-term holding.

“Bitcoin’s fast-shrinking liquid supply is creating the conditions for demand shocks and upside volatility,” Sygnum wrote.