Bitcoin’s 7% Drop to $77K May Mark Cycle Low, Analyst Says

Bitcoin may have found a floor after sliding roughly 7% to $77,000 over the weekend, according to analyst PlanC, who argues the move could mark the deepest pullback of the current bull cycle.

In a post on X on Saturday, PlanC said there is a “decent chance” the latest drop represents a capitulation-style low rather than the start of a prolonged downturn.

Bitcoin briefly touched the $77,000 level before stabilizing and rebounding modestly to around $78,600, data from CoinMarketCap shows.

Bitcoin Drawdown Echoes Past Capitulations That Led to Recoveries

Despite the bounce, the asset remains down more than 11% over the past month and roughly 38% below its October all-time high of $126,100.

PlanC compared the current price action to several historic drawdowns that ultimately preceded major recoveries.

He pointed to the 2018 bear market capitulation near $3,000, the March 2020 COVID-driven crash to around $5,100, and the sharp declines following the FTX and Terra-Luna collapses, when Bitcoin briefly traded in the $15,500–$17,500 range.

“There is a decent chance we are going through another major capitulation low as we speak,” PlanC wrote, adding that his estimated range for a cycle bottom sits between $75,000 and $80,000.

In his view, the recent sell-off may represent a final shakeout rather than a structural shift in the broader trend.

Others urged caution but echoed the view that weekend moves can exaggerate market sentiment. Bitcoin advocate and financial accountant Rajat Soni noted that the drop occurred during one of crypto’s most volatile trading windows.

FYI: 35%-40% corrections are historically not unheard of for a Bitcoin bull run.

Also, the Binance 'glitch' black swan brought us down much lower than we would have gone otherwise.

— Plan C (@TheRealPlanC) February 1, 2026

“Never trust a weekend pump or dump,” he said, warning traders against drawing firm conclusions from short-term price swings.

Still, not all market watchers are convinced the downside is over. Veteran trader Peter Brandt has suggested Bitcoin could slide as low as $60,000 by the third quarter of 2026.

Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen also expects the cycle low to arrive later this year, potentially around October, though he anticipates multiple relief rallies before then.

Adding to the cautious outlook, Jurrien Timmer of Fidelity said 2026 could prove to be a “year off” for Bitcoin, with prices potentially revisiting the mid-$60,000 range before a more durable recovery takes hold.

Bitcoin Slides as Fed Caution, Geopolitics Sap Risk Appetite

Bitcoin has fallen back below $89,000 after a short-lived rebound, pressured by tighter financial conditions and rising geopolitical stress that have weighed on risk assets.

According to XS.com analyst Samer Hasn, a Federal Reserve stance that remains neutral to hawkish, combined with tensions in the Middle East, has reduced demand for speculative investments across crypto markets.

Market data points to weakening conviction among traders. CoinGlass figures show crypto futures open interest is down 42% from record highs, with attempted breakouts quickly reversed by sharp sell-offs.

At the same time, capital has rotated toward traditional havens such as gold and silver, leaving digital assets struggling to attract fresh inflows as volatility persists.

With Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaling little urgency to cut rates and geopolitical risks pushing investors toward tangible assets, analysts say Bitcoin remains a higher-risk trade until either policy eases or global tensions cool.