Bitcoin Price Prediction:  What Onchain Signals Suggest for BTC Price Direction – Up or Down?

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is once again testing investor conviction as it trades near $111,700, consolidating after a sharp 16% correction from recent highs. Yet according to ARK Invest’s Q3 2025 Bitcoin Quarterly, the foundation beneath the market remains resilient, with bullish fundamentals, deep institutional involvement, and a macro backdrop that could set the stage for renewed upside into year-end.

Bitcoin Fundamentals Stay Strong Despite Volatility

ARK notes that Bitcoin closed Q3 2025 at $114,065, ending the quarter above its short-term holder cost basis of $111,933, a historically crucial bullish threshold.

The network remains structurally sound:

• Mining difficulty rose 21.7% in Q3 and 61% year-on-year, reaching 611 EH/s, signaling record-high network security.
• Miner revenue climbed 6.3% during the quarter to $52.4 million per day, up 82% year-over-year, confirming profitability recovery since the halving.
• Transaction volume surged 27.8% quarter-on-quarter to 103,600 BTC per day, while active entities increased 6.1% YoY, proof of consistent demand and usage.
• Illiquid supply (coins unlikely to move) reached 14.3 million BTC, up 4.6% YoY, suggesting growing conviction among holders.

Even after the latest pullback, 94.5% of supply remains in profit, indicating that most holders are not underwater, a bullish on-chain structure rarely seen outside mid-cycle consolidations.

Importantly, ARK highlights that Bitcoin’s “supply density” sits near 30%, the highest since 2020, meaning a large share of coins last moved within 15% of the current price. Such clustering often precedes heightened volatility, setting the stage for sharp directional moves once sentiment shifts.

Institutional and ETF Demand Anchors the Market

Institutional involvement continues to expand rapidly. According to ARK’s data:

• Public companies’ digital-asset treasuries (DATs) boosted holdings by 40% in 2025, reaching 1.1 million BTC or 5.6% of total supply.
• U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs now control 1.3 million BTC (6.6% of supply), a record high. Notably, every historical peak in ETF balances has preceded a new cycle price high.
• Combined, ETFs and DATs hold 12.2% of all Bitcoin, underscoring how institutional accumulation is tightening available supply.

Meanwhile, derivatives data show a healthy but not overheated market. Perpetual funding rates stand near 2.1% and the three-month futures basis is around 7.6%, far below the 43% and 17% extremes seen at the 2021 peak, evidence that leverage remains contained and speculative excess is limited.

Macro Trends: Inflation Eases, Productivity Rises

ARK’s macro team expects that fading inflation and weakening labor momentum will push the Federal Reserve toward a dovish stance. The U.S. labor differential has turned negative for the first time since 2020, the quits rate has fallen to 1.9%, and average unemployment duration has extended to 24.5 weeks.

While labor softens, price pressures are muted: Truflation’s CPI shows a sub-3% year-on-year trend, well below official readings. With tariffs having minimal inflation impact, ARK believes the Fed’s focus will pivot from inflation to employment, easing financial conditions, a backdrop historically favorable for Bitcoin.

Moreover, deregulation and tax-driven investment incentives under the “One Big Beautiful Bill” (OBBB) are expected to unleash a productivity boom, with permanent expensing for R&D, software, and equipment expected to lift real GDP growth in 2026.

Such structural growth, ARK argues, aligns with Bitcoin’s appeal as a technological and monetary hedge. Technology and new ideas. Therefore, Bitcoin could benefit as investors search for better opportunities.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Technical Outlook: Bulls Defend $108K Support

From a technical lens, Bitcoin remains range-bound but stable. The $108,000-$110,000 zone aligns with the 200-day moving average and on-chain mean support at $104,772. The RSI (40.6) signals mild oversold conditions, while contracting MACD histograms suggest waning bearish pressure.

If BTC breaks above $117,000, it could trigger a short-term rally toward $124,000-$126,000, retesting previous highs. Failure to defend $108,000 may expose $103,000 and $98,200, consistent with the 50% Fibonacci retracement from June’s rally.

For swing traders, ARK’s data-supported structure points to a buy-the-dip opportunity near $108K, with tight risk below $107.5K and targets near $124K-$126K.

Outlook: Positioned for Growth, Poised for Volatility

ARK concludes that while Bitcoin’s cyclical timing suggests late-stage bull-market conditions (about 18 months post-halving), structural fundamentals remain highly constructive.

Network security, institutional absorption, and moderating macro pressures provide a robust floor, though elevated supply density warns of volatility spikes ahead.

In short: Bitcoin may wobble before it surges, but its long-term trajectory remains upward, fueled by record institutional ownership, tightening supply, and improving macro liquidity. As 2025 draws to a close, the next significant move could define the opening narrative for 2026.

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