Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Price Stalls Around $115K As Traders Anticipate China Trade Deal Resolution

Bitcoin is trading sideways, hovering around $114,500, down 0.50% over the last 24 hours. The market remains in consolidation as traders assess global macroeconomic trends and await progress on the U.S.–China trade deal.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency holds a market capitalization of $2.28 trillion, with daily trading volumes exceeding $47 billion, reflecting strong participation even as price momentum cools.

Trade Deal Optimism Lifts Market Confidence

The recent optimism stems from reports that U.S. and Chinese negotiators have reached a consensus on key trade disputes. The framework, which will be finalized later this week by Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, covers sensitive issues such as export controls, rare-earth minerals, and tariffs.

🇺🇸🇨🇳U.S. and Chinese officials hashed out the framework of a trade deal for Trump and Xi to finalize later this week. The 100% tariffs on Chinese goods set for Nov 1 have been eliminated, and China is expected to delay rare earth restrictions for a year and resume US soy buying. pic.twitter.com/LZmIciv3gn

— Karen Braun (@kannbwx) October 26, 2025

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the 100% tariff threat on Chinese goods is “off the table,” while China is set to resume substantial soybean purchases and delay restrictions on rare-earth exports.

If confirmed, the agreement could ease supply chain pressures and boost investor sentiment, both vital for Bitcoin, which often benefits from reduced macro uncertainty.

U.S.–China Relations Drive Market Sentiment

While trade optimism has steadied risk appetite, uncertainty lingers. The U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) has launched a Section 301 investigation into China’s trade practices, alleging noncompliance with the 2020 Phase One Agreement. The probe targets gaps in intellectual property, technology transfers, and agricultural commitments, potentially reigniting tariff tensions.

China’s Foreign Ministry rejected the allegations, saying it has “scrupulously fulfilled” its obligations. The investigation, running through December 16, could give Washington new grounds to reinstate tariffs if talks stall or earlier sanctions are overturned.

For Bitcoin investors, such developments add another layer of uncertainty. Historically, shifts in U.S.–China relations influence global liquidity and risk sentiment, both key drivers of crypto volatility.

Key factors to watch:

• Progress on the new trade framework
• The outcome of the USTR probe
• Dollar strength and liquidity trends

A renewed conflict could pressure Bitcoin in the short term, while a clear trade breakthrough may restore global confidence and risk appetite.

BTC Technical Outlook: Key Resistance at $114,950

On the technical side, BTC/USD continues to consolidate below $114,950, a critical resistance aligned with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement. The 4-hour chart reveals a potential double-top pattern, signaling buyer fatigue after last week’s rebound from $108,667.

The RSI near 63 shows waning bullish momentum, while price remains capped under the 50-day EMA, often a decisive near-term trend indicator.

A breakout above $116,000 could drive BTC toward $117,669 and $120,571, confirming a bullish continuation pattern. A close above $120,571 would strengthen the case for an advance to $124,148, marking a return to September’s highs.

Failure to clear resistance may trigger a pullback toward $113,552 and $112,255. A sustained drop below $112,000 could confirm a bearish double-top, exposing downside risk toward $108,667.

Outlook: Cautious Optimism Ahead

With global attention centered on the U.S.–China trade resolution, Bitcoin’s near-term outlook remains neutral to slightly bullish. A confirmed diplomatic breakthrough could restore risk appetite and potentially lift BTC back toward the $120K mark in November.

As traders navigate both technical signals and geopolitical developments, Bitcoin’s next move will hinge on whether global markets embrace stability — or brace for another wave of volatility.

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