Bitcoin Price Analysis: Signals to Watch as Macro Shock Sends Crypto Fear Index to 35

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) fell sharply below $111,000 this week, extending losses as global risk sentiment deteriorated. Most of the selling bias was triggered as BTC got rejected near $124,500, where a bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart confirmed heavy profit-taking and a potential short-term trend shift.

The move coincided with broader macro jitters, driving the Crypto Fear and Greed Index down to 35 (Fear), its lowest in over a month.

This drop mirrors the risk reset across global markets, with the total crypto market cap slipping to $3.7 trillion and 24-hour trading volumes nearing $497 billion.

Crypto Enters Risk-Off Territory

The latest downturn underscores how Bitcoin remains closely tied to broader market sentiment. Correlation with U.S. equities climbed again this week as risk assets sold off amid renewed trade and inflation concerns.

• Bitcoin: $110,705, down 8.59% in 24h
• Ethereum: $3,764, down 12.94%
• BNB: $1,092, down 13.6%
• Solana: $183, down 16.3%
• XRP: $2.41, down 14.0%

The Altcoin Season Index dipped to 37, confirming a renewed shift toward Bitcoin dominance. At the same time, the CoinMarketCap 20 Index, tracking major tokens, slid 10.5% to 235.1, highlighting broad selling pressure across the sector.

Investor psychology has also turned defensive. Historical Fear and Greed data shows sentiment has deteriorated from neutral (54) last week to fear (35) now, the steepest weekly decline since March.

As we discussed in our previous Bitcoin price predictions, the bearish butterfly pattern completed its first target, triggering a sharp selloff. Now, let’s take a look at the fresh analysis and where Bitcoin could head next.

Bitcoin Chart Outlook: Key Levels to Watch

Technically, Bitcoin’s drop below its ascending trendline from April signals a weakening bullish structure. The RSI (38.8) indicates that BTC is entering oversold territory, while the MACD has crossed bearishly into negative momentum.

The $108,000–$110,000 zone remains a crucial support area that has repeatedly attracted long-term buyers since June. Candle formations over the last three sessions, marked by long lower wicks, indicate dip buyers defending this level.

A Doji or spinning top near this region could mark the early stages of a reversal, particularly if confirmed by a rebound above $117,000, which aligns with the 50-day moving average and prior resistance zone.

If this recovery holds, Bitcoin may attempt another retest of $124,000, followed by a medium-term target near $126,000–$130,000. Alternatively, failure to stay over $108,000 could expose downside targets near $103,000 and $98,200, where historical demand zones reside.

#Bitcoin – As noted in our previous forecast, BTC completed the bearish butterfly’s first target before tumbling 9% to $110K. Price now tests key support at $108K–$110K. A rebound above $117K could trigger recovery toward $124K–$126K, while failure risks deeper pullback to $103K. pic.twitter.com/4D4spTnEqX

— Arslan Ali (@forex_arslan) October 11, 2025

Market Sentiment and Trading Setup

Despite the selloff, technical analysis signals it as a healthy reset rather than the start of a new bearish trend. With the Crypto Fear and Greed Index at 35, market sentiment now mirrors early accumulation phases seen in prior cycles.

With that said, a potential buy-the-dip setup emerges near $108,000, with stop-losses below $107,500 and upside targets at $124,000–$126,000. This aligns with both Fibonacci retracement and moving average confluence, offering a favorable risk-reward ratio for swing traders.

If momentum improves, Bitcoin could resume its uptrend toward $130,000 in Q4, especially as institutional flows, ETF demand, and blockchain adoption continue to offset macro volatility.

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