Bitcoin Market Hits Stalemate as On-chain Data Shows Equilibrium

As 2026 begins, Bitcoin (BTC) is locked in a state of equilibrium, with on-chain data revealing a tense balance between sellers taking profits and persistent demand from long-term holders.

After a volatile 2025, BTC has stalled near the $88,000 mark, and key metrics show a market lacking a clear directional bias.

Bitcoin Trades Sideways as On-chain Metrics Split

Selling pressure, while present, is not indicative of panic. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), a key on-chain indicator, hovers just below neutral at 0.994. This suggests that coins being sold are moving, on average, close to their original purchase price, ruling out a fear-driven capitulation.

At the same time, demand from U.S. spot markets has cooled, evidenced by a negative Coinbase Premium Index of -0.09, which indicates slightly lower prices on the U.S.-based exchange compared to global counterparts.

Counterbalancing this light sell-side pressure is a steady trend of accumulation. Recent data showed a large net outflow of BTC from centralized exchanges, continuing a pattern of investors moving assets into self-custody for long-term holding.

🚨 BREAKING: CEX records a net outflow of 2,949.67 BTC in the past 24 hours

According to Coinglass data, centralized exchanges saw significant Bitcoin outflows, led by Kraken, Bybit, and Coinbase Pro. Meanwhile, Binance recorded a net inflow of 670.58 BTC, ranking first among… pic.twitter.com/mPxY7n6yoj

— AVOLA (@Avolaofficial) December 22, 2025

This market structure has led analysts to forecast a prolonged period of range-bound activity. A report from XWIN Research Japan projects a high probability of Bitcoin trading between $80,000 and $140,000 for most of 2026.

“As 2026 begins, it is still difficult to say that Bitcoin has clearly entered a new bullish phase,” a CryptoQuant contributor from XWIN Research Japan noted. “The market remains in a ‘high-volatility’ box range.”

Institutional Perspectives and Trading Strategies

The current on-chain stalemate suggests a mature, two-sided market where speculative froth has been reduced. For institutional desks, this environment shifts the strategic focus from trend-following to range-trading.

The defined support and resistance levels make options strategies, such as selling strangles or straddles, more viable as traders can capitalize on time decay while the underlying asset remains compressed. The persistent exchange outflows indicate that any major dip is likely to be met with strong accumulation, providing a structural floor for the market.

The key takeaway is that the next major directional move will likely require an external catalyst—either a macroeconomic shift or a major change in ETF inflow dynamics—to break the current deadlock.