Bitcoin Holds $110K, But Traders Just Bet $1.15B on Crash to $104K

Bitcoin institutional traders bet over $1.15 billion on downside protection in the past 24 hours, with put options accounting for 28% of total market transactions despite Bitcoin holding above $110,000.

Greekslive reported transactions concentrated in shallow out-of-the-money puts for this week and month, with a trading range of $104,000 to $108,000 forming the dense area.

比特币期权大宗市场数据显示，最近的24小时内，比特币大宗看跌期权成交占比明显上升，超11.5亿美元占市场总成交的28%，成交主要集中在本周和本月的浅虚值看跌期权，10.4K至10.8K是成交密集区。… pic.twitter.com/nzykfXSxMC

— [email protected] (@BTC__options) October 16, 2025

Market skew turned deeply negative, with short-term deviation comparable to October 11 levels immediately after the $19 billion liquidation crash.

Greekslive stated “the options market, particularly large players such as market makers, has a high degree of panic regarding the downside in the latter market, even approaching the sentiment after the comprehensive market collapse on the 11th.“

The defensive positioning comes as Bitcoin trades above $110,000, down 1%, but holding above a key psychological support level in that range.

According to Coinalyze, the total open interest across all Bitcoin derivatives stands at $33.0 billion, with perpetual contracts accounting for $30.9 billion and futures contracts at $2.2 billion. Open interest declined 1.67% in 24 hours.

Whale Moves and Short Positions

Earlier today, Onchain Lens shared blockchain records showing that a Bitcoin whale transferred 2,000 BTC, worth approximately $222 million, into 51 new addresses on Thursday.

The coins were split across multiple new wallets, with 50 addresses receiving about 37.5 BTC each and one receiving 121 BTC.

Such migrations are common among large holders seeking better privacy or updated wallet formats, rather than panicking due to the ongoing massive liquidation.

Speaking with Cryptonews, Andreas Brekken, founder of SideShift.ai, noted that the ongoing liquidation is primarily targeting “everyone who combined the two deadliest substances in crypto, shitcoins and leverage.”

He added that “traders wanting to benefit from an alt season need to find coins that fit the revenue meta and hold spot. There is no safe amount of perps leverage on coins that can go to zero.“

Bearish sentiment extends beyond options markets.

Lookonchain data also shows one trader opened a 3,440 BTC short position worth approximately $392 million, already sitting on $5.7 million in unrealized gains.

Two other large traders built short books worth nearly $180 million across BTC, ETH, SOL, and DOGE.

Social media reports claimed a whale they tagged “Trump insider” opened another $120-127 million Bitcoin short at $111,386.

🚨BREAKING

TRUMP’S INSIDER JUST OPENED ANOTHER $BTC SHORT AT $111,386 FOR $120 MILLION

HIS WIN RATE IS 100%…

PRAYING FOR OUR BAGS 🙏 pic.twitter.com/t7JyxGdLIA

— Wimar.X (@DefiWimar) October 16, 2025

The narrative particularly gained traction amid heightened speculation about upcoming Trump announcements that could potentially impact markets.

Currently, Binance leads exchange open interest at $11.5 billion, followed by Bybit at $7.0 billion, Huobi at $4.3 billion, and OKX at $3.6 billion.

Deribit, specializing in options, holds $2.7 billion, while Hyperliquid accounts for $2.4 billion.

Bitcoin Analysis: RSI Divergence Points to Extended Correction Risk

The weekly RSI displays bearish divergence, with price making higher highs while momentum makes lower highs, a technical warning signal that often precedes major corrections, according to analyst Ali Martinez.

The descending trendline connecting RSI peaks throughout 2024-2025 shows that each price advance occurred with less momentum strength.

Bitcoin trades between long-term parabolic support and resistance structures, with current positioning suggesting neither imminent collapse nor parabolic acceleration.

Monthly charts also reveal that the 4-year halving cycle pattern may be evolving as the Federal Reserve’s monetary easing shifts the market structure from a supply-driven to a liquidity-driven dynamic.

Analyst Ted Pillows suggests “the $BTC 4-year cycle is most likely over,” noting “it was never about a 4-year cycle but about liquidity.”

The $BTC 4-year cycle is most likely over.

The Fed has now started to do monetary easing, which means Bitcoin could peak in 2026.

Always remember that it was never about a 4-year cycle but about liquidity. pic.twitter.com/DN4zkyt7nA

— Ted (@TedPillows) October 15, 2025

The $104,000 level, where put options concentrate, represents approximately 7.3% downside from current levels and aligns with recent liquidation event lows around $102,000.

Currently, Bitcoin faces probable consolidation between $105,000-$120,000.

The $104,000 level represents a critical test where Bitcoin either finds support and stabilizes or breaks toward deeper correction zones around $96,500 MVRV fair value.

An extended timeframe for new all-time highs appears likely, with 2026 potentially representing a more realistic peak than December 2025 if liquidity conditions evolve as anticipated.