Bitcoin ETF Flows Expected to Remain Strong Leading Up to Halving, Says Santiment

Spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows are anticipated to remain robust leading up to the Bitcoin halving, according to Santiment, an on-chain analytics firm. In a recent post on X, the company noted that Bitcoin ETF volume has not slowed down since the asset’s mid-March all-time high. Santiment said that trader activity continues to be higher than the turning point in late February when individual trading surged. “It is a likely foregone conclusion that high activity should continue leading up to the April 19th halving, but it will be interesting to see whether a drop-off in ETF volume and on-chain volume will occur directly afterwards.”

Top Seven ETFs See Daily Volume of $3.19B

Santiment reported that the top seven ETFs have seen a daily volume of $3.19 billion. However, the firm expressed interest in observing whether there would be a decline in ETF volume and on-chain volume immediately after the halving event.

📊 #Bitcoin #ETF volume hasn't slowed down four weeks after the $BTC #AllTimeHigh. Among $GBTC, $IBIT, $FBTC, $ARKB, $BTCO, $BITB, and $HODL, trader activity is still notably higher than the turning point that began in late February after an influx of individual trading began… pic.twitter.com/LErr5T8BWF

— Santiment (@santimentfeed) April 7, 2024

Lucas Kiely, from Yield App, suggested that the accumulation of Bitcoin through ETFs could potentially reduce the occurrence of large price swings following the halving. 

In March, spot Bitcoin ETF volumes reached $111 billion, nearly tripling the previous month’s volume, indicating sustained interest in these products.

Recent data from Farside Investors revealed an increase in Bitcoin ETF inflows towards the end of the previous week, with two consecutive days of over $200 million in net inflows on April 4 and 5.

This followed a few days of outflows earlier in the week, potentially signifying a reversal from the strong performance observed in late March.

Grayscale, however, continues to experience consistent outflows, with its GBTC fund having shed $738 million last week. 

Since converting to a spot ETF in mid-January, the firm has seen a total outflow of 294,313 BTC from its product.

Crypto Veterans Remain Optimistic

Despite these trends, industry executives, such as Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse, remain optimistic. Garlinghouse predicts that the total market value of cryptocurrencies will double this year, largely driven by spot ETFs and the Bitcoin halving. He believes that the introduction of real institutional money through ETFs is a significant factor contributing to this positive outlook.“I’m very optimistic. I think the macro trends, the big picture things like the ETFs, they’re driving for the first time real institutional money,” he told CNBC on April 7.Likewise, Matteo Greco, research analyst at digital asset firm Fineqia International, expects Bitcoin to reach $75,000 by the halving event.“Historically, BTC halving events have marked significant points followed by 9-18 months of uptrend, culminating in cycle peaks,” he wrote in a recent note. However, he noted that, for the first time, BTC reached its all-time high in anticipation of the halving, indicating a departure from previous cycles. “If historical patterns repeat, we may witness an uptrend for the remaining nine months of 2024, leading to a cycle peak expected between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025.”