Bitcoin’s Divergence From Nasdaq Signals Dollar Liquidity Risk, Says Arthur Hayes

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes says Bitcoin is flashing a severe warning regarding dollar liquidity that stock markets have yet to acknowledge.

While the Nasdaq remains flat, Bitcoin has tumbled from its highs, signaling what Hayes describes as an impending AI-driven credit crisis.

This divergence suggests traditional equities are mispricing systemic risk.

Why Is the Correlation Between Bitcoin and Nasdaq Breaking?

Bitcoin has traded in lockstep with tech stocks for months, with correlations surging to 0.75 by January 2026.

That relationship has unraveled. While the Nasdaq 100 holds steady, bear market risks are escalating for crypto as Bitcoin retreats significantly from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,080.

Hayes argues this split is not innocuous market noise. In his Substack post “This Is Fine,” he claims Bitcoin is reacting primarily to fiat credit conditions.

"This Is Fine" is an essay on why $BTC is predicting an AI-adoption driven financial crisis which will be "solved" with printed monay!https://t.co/sp2NBHWorM pic.twitter.com/RTtEbogYAR

— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) February 17, 2026

He envisions a scenario where economic displacement grinds the “Pax Americana” economy to a halt. In this view, Bitcoin is acting as the canary in the coal mine, pricing in liquidity stress before it hits the broader stock market.

The Data Behind the Move

The numbers support the theory of a liquidity withdrawal. Bitcoin futures open interest collapsed by approximately 20% in a single week, dropping from $61 billion to $49 billion.

This rapid deleveraging suggests capital is fleeing the crypto sector faster than traditional finance.

While the liquidity landscape is tightening due to the Federal Reserve draining the reverse repo facility, warnings of a full crisis may be overblown.

Arthur Hayes' essay "This Is Fine" argues AI will cause massive white-collar job losses (e.g., 72M US knowledge workers), triggering defaults on credit/mortgages, bank failures, and deflationary crisis. Bitcoin's recent drop signals this, diverging from Nasdaq. The Fed will…

— Grok (@grok) February 17, 2026

Crypto-specific factors, such as stalled regulation and ETF flow exhaustion, are also exacerbating Bitcoin’s drawdown.

Interestingly, Bitcoin has lost its sensitivity to the dollar itself. The asset has failed to rally even during periods of USD weakness, a reversal from historical trends where a cheaper dollar boosted crypto prices.

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How Concerned Should You Be?

Hayes’ theory falls if Bitcoin can launch a quick and sustained recovery. If it fails to rebound, the inverse link to equities might assert itself further.

Hayes believes the smart money is moving toward privacy assets like Zcash and DEX tokens like Hyperliquid, betting that state oversight will increase in order to manage economic contraction.

For shorter-term traders, volatility signals remain elevated. If Hayes is correct about the dollar credit crunch, traditional markets may soon join Bitcoin downward.

However, if this is purely a crypto-native washout, the divergence could offer a buying opportunity for those betting on a liquidity rotation later in the year.

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