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随着卖空挤压风险加剧，比特币现货需求增强
链上及衍生品数据显示，比特币价格有望在2026年初实现更健康的上涨。
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需要了解的:
- 链上数据显示，近期从90,000美元上涨至97,000美元的行情已由杠杆驱动的拉升转变为现货买盘支持的上涨。
- 永续合约资金费率为负，意味着空头支付多头费用，这增加了现货需求持续时发生空头挤压的风险。
比特币在2026年迄今已上涨约10%，现价稍低于97,000美元，此次涨势主要由现货买盘驱动，而非通过期货杠杆头寸推动。
现货市场涉及比特币的直接购买以实现即时交割，这意味着买方获得资产的所有权。相比之下，期货市场是衍生合约，允许交易者通过杠杆获得敞口而无需拥有基础比特币。
故事继续
现货驱动的涨势通常比杠杆驱动的涨势更为健康，因为它反映了真实的需求，而非投机性的仓位布局。 Checkonchain 数据显示，过去一周内，从 90,000 美元到 97,000 美元的近期走势已经由杠杆驱动的上涨转变为由现货买盘支撑的行情。
Coinglass 数据强化了这一观点，显示出 期货持仓量以比特币计价的数量为678,000 BTC，较1月8日的679,000 BTC略有减少，表明系统中的整体杠杆水平基本保持不变。
根据 Glassnode 数据，永续合约资金费率目前为负值，增加了另一个维度。资金费率代表多头和空头头寸之间的定期支付，正值意味着多头支付空头，负值则意味着空头支付多头。如果现货反弹持续，而资金费率依旧为负，这种情况会增加爆仓空头的风险，即上涨的价格迫使空头平仓，随着清算连锁反应加速，推动上行动能进一步增强。
与此同时，纳斯达克100指数今年迄今表现相对平稳 而比特币上涨了 10%。这种分歧可能支持持续的轮动叙事，其中比特币日益被视为具有更高贝塔系数的杠杆科技替代品，可能吸引更多资金流入并为涨势增添动力。
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