Asia Morning Briefing: Leverage Meets Patience as Bitcoin Builds Toward a Breakout

As Asia opens the Wednesday trading day, bitcoin BTC$90,010.70 is changing hands above $105.5K, a slight correction from $107K, where it sat during the U.S. business day.

Despite the geopolitical upheaval of the last few weeks – with the U.S. strike on Iran, an event that surprised both geopolitical scholars and Polymarket bettors – BTC has proven itself once again to be a resilient store of value. CoinDesk market data shows that the asset class has been fairly stable over the last month, up 1%.

But this return to a price point that looks inches away from BTC's all-time high of $111K, which it hit in May, feels more disciplined than euphoric, according to market observers.

Unlike the December 2024 breakout above $100K, which triggered a wave of profit-taking, long-term investors now appear content to sit on their gains, as Glassnode wrote in their weekly note.

“HODLing appears to be the dominant market mechanic,” Glassnode analysts wrote, citing a surge in long-term holder supply to 14.7 million BTC and historically low realized profits. On-chain activity indicates a limited desire to sell, even as BTC trades just below record levels.

Metrics like the adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) also reflect this restraint, hovering just above breakeven, according to Glassnode. This suggests that the coins being spent are recent acquisitions. Think: tactical trades rather than broad distribution.

Meanwhile, Glassnode data shows the Liveliness metric continues to decline, reinforcing that older coins remain dormant.

That patience is being met with persistent institutional demand, as QCP wrote in its daily markets update.

Market data indicates that $2.2 billion in net inflows to BTC spot ETFs occurred last week, with QCP describing the tone as “constructive” and noting that players such as Strategy and Metaplanet continue to accumulate.

These steady inflows are quietly reshaping the market’s structure. Bitcoin’s realized cap, a measure of the price at which coins last moved, has grown to $955 billion, which is likely a sign that real capital, not just speculation, is moving into the asset.

Still, not everything is calm under the surface. QCP notes that leveraged long positions have been rising, with funding rates turning positive across major perpetual futures markets.

Glassnode warns that “the market may need to move higher, or lower, to unlock additional supply,” suggesting that this equilibrium between long-term conviction and short-term leverage won’t hold forever.

With BTC barely moving after the Senate approved the White House's 'Big Beautiful Bill', the market feels less like a stampede and more like a standoff between long-term holders who refuse to sell and short-term traders piling into leverage.

That fragile equilibrium has market observers wondering where the next catalyst will come from and whether it could make BTC’s next move explosive.

Figma Holds $70M in BTC ETFs: Filing

Design software firm Figma has disclosed a $70 million position in the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) as part of its IPO filing.

The filing shows that board approved a $55 million BTC investment in March 2024, which has since appreciated by 27%.

A separate May resolution greenlit a $30 million USDC purchase, earmarked for future conversion to BTC bringing the total planned allocation to $100 million.

Recently, Hong Kong-based food conglomerate DDC Enterprise announced a $528 million capital raise this week, earmarked to buy 5,000 BTC over three years.

DeFi Development Corp. to Raise $100M in Convertible Notes, Eyes More SOL Accumulation

DeFi Development Corp. , the first publicly traded U.S. company with a treasury strategy built around Solana SOL$132.31, announced in a Tuesday press release that it plans to raise $100 million through a private offering of convertible senior notes due 2030.

The offering, made under Rule 144A to qualified institutional buyers, includes an option for initial purchasers to acquire up to an additional $25 million in notes within 13 days of issuance.

Market Movements:

BTC: Bitcoin is holding around $106K, with on-chain data from Glassnode showing long-term holders largely unmoved.

ETH: Ethereum faced heavy selling after failing to break resistance at $2,522, ending a volatile 24-hour session marked by a 4.5% trading range.

Gold: Gold rose over 1% Tuesday, driven by a weaker dollar and global trade uncertainty, with spot prices hitting $3,357.85 and futures climbing to $3,353.80.

S&P 500: U.S. stocks were mixed Tuesday as investors rotated out of tech, with the S&P 500 slipping 0.11% to close at 6,198.01.

Elsewhere in Crypto:

• Binance to Keep Hundreds of Staff in Singapore Despite Crackdown (Bloomberg)
• NY Attorney General Letitia James warns stablecoin bills put Americans at risk, urges stronger oversight (The Block)
• High on DOGE? Cannabis Company Makes Dogecoin Treasury Play (Decrypt)