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Equities-Crypto Relationship Is Likely to Weaken in the Long Term, Citi Says
The correlation between bitcoin and the stock market is expected to weaken as the adoption of digital assets grows, the report said.
Feb 5, 2025, 8:39 a.m.
What to know:
- Stocks have been the most important macro driver of crypto, the report said.
- Citi said the correlation between equities and bitcoin is expected to weaken in the longer term as the adoption of digital assets grows.
- Crypto regulatory clarity in the U.S. will result in more non-macro driven price action, the bank said.
The relationship between stocks and crypto markets is likely to weaken in the future, Wall Street bank Citi (C) said in a research report Monday.
While equities have been and remain the most important macro driver of crypto markets, the "equity-crypto correlation is likely to fall over time as the nascent asset class matures, the investor base grows, technology advances and adoption progresses," the report said.
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Still, the speculative nature of cryptocurrency markets means that risk asset correlations may be inflated, especially during risk-off events, the bank said.
"A more transparent regulatory regime in the U.S. will also lead to more idiosyncratic price action," analysts led by Alex Saunders wrote.
Bitcoin (BTC) volatility is expected to continue to fall in the long term as institutional adoption grows, the bank said.
Citi noted that crypto was the only asset class whose market cap, as a percentage of U.S. equities, grew during last year.
Bitcoin's correlation to gold is also worth tracking as it may be an early sign of the "store of value use case," the report added.
Read more: Bitcoin's Outlook Is Bullish With Prices Expected to Remain Elevated: Deutsche Bank
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What to know:
- Coinbase Institutional is seeing a potential December recovery in crypto, citing improving liquidity and a shift in macroeconomic conditions that could favor risk assets like bitcoin.
- The firm's optimism is driven by rising odds of Federal Reserve rate cuts, with markets pricing in a 93% chance easing next week, and improving liquidity conditions.
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