First Mover Americas: Bitcoin Pares Losses Following Thursday's Slump

This article originally appeared in First Mover, CoinDesk’s daily newsletter, putting the latest moves in crypto markets in context. Subscribe to get it in your inbox every day.

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CoinDesk 20 Index: 2,062.17 -3.66%

Bitcoin BTC$90,190.88: $70,079.42 -3.1%

Ether ETH$3,224.58: $2,519.63 -4.34%

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Bitcoin pared some of its losses, returning to $70,000 during the European morning after falling as low as $68,800. Still, BTC remained about 3% lower in the last 24 hours. Altcoins suffered greater losses, with the CoinDesk 20 Index's measurement of the broader crypto market down over 3.5%. Explanations for the slide range from profit-taking following the rally earlier in the week to a dip in Donald Trump's election victory odds on Polymarket. Traders have also been looking at tech earnings, tensions between Iran and Israel and a sharp rise in U.K. gilt yields following the roll-out of the government budget earlier this week, Quinn Thompson, founder of crypto hedge fund Lekker Capital, told CoinDesk.

Short-term holders of bitcoin sent more than $2.3 billion, some 32,000 BTC, to exchanges at a loss on Thursday as the price dropped below $70,000 after approaching an all-time high earlier this week. The panic selling was the most since Aug. 5's yen carry trade unwind. Short-term holders — investors who have held bitcoin for less than 155 days — tend to panic and sell when the price drops, and buy when there is euphoria or greed in the market. In total, they sent over 54,000 BTC to exchanges on Thursday, the highest amount since Mar. 27.

The odds on Kamala Harris winning next week's U.S. presidential election are rising on betting platform Polymarket, with some observers suggesting the increase reflects hedging positions among traders who've also bet on a victory for Donald Trump. Harris’ odds have risen to almost 39% from 33% on Oct. 30. Trump's odds dropped in tandem, suggestive of lower expectations of him winning, though at 61%, he's still the preferred candidate. The increase in the price for Harris’ shares could reflect traders buying them as a hedge on their Trump bets, market observers say, as some allege reports of voting irregularities pitted against Trump that could influence market bets.

Chart of the Day

• Ethereum futures funding rates are showing a slight upward trend, which may reflect renewed bullish sentiment.
• The funding rates metric measures the aggression of buyers versus sellers in the futures market.
• Despite the recent uptick, the levels remain way below those seen in March.
• "Higher funding rates would not only confirm participants’ willingness to go long on Ethereum but would also add upward pressure on the price, potentially leading to a stronger and more sustained rally," CryptoQuant wrote.
• Source: CryptoQuant

- Jamie Crawley

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