Share this article
Polymarket Traders See 55% Chance of Second Trump Presidency
Trump recently won the first two Republican Party primaries.
Jan 30, 2024, 5:56 a.m.
Make us preferred on Google
The U.S. presidential election is ten months away, and traders from Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform, seem confident that former President Donald Trump will return to power.
As of writing, the Yes side shares in the Trump prediction market tied to the "Presidential Election Winner 2024" contract traded at 55 cents, representing a 55% probability of Trump winning the election. Trump recently won the first two Republican Party primaries, which were conducted to choose the candidate best suited to lead their respective parties.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW
Don't miss another story.Subscribe to the Crypto Daybook Americas Newsletter today. See all newsletters
Traders see a 38% chance of President Joe Biden holding on to power and just 1% odds of Indian-American aspirant and Republican Nikki Haley winning the election. Meanwhile, traders assign a 2% probability of Michelle Obama outshining the competition amid rumors that the former U.S. First Lady could soon join the presidential race.
Since its debut in 2020, Polymarket has been one of the preferred destinations for traders looking to bet on binary events.
Traders have bet over $22 million in the Presidential Election Winner 2024 contract, of which $3.4 million is currently locked in the Trump-focused prediction market.
The contract will expire on Nov. 5, and Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC will be used as resolution sources for the market.
Traditional sports betting books also have Trump and Biden as favorites to win the 2024 Presidential election. Last week, Biden had +156 election odds to become U.S. president again, narrowly beating Trump's 150+ odds.
Mais para você
Mais para você
Trump-linked Truth Social seeks SEC approval for two crypto ETFs
The filings include a bitcoin and ether ETF and a staking-focused Cronos fund, deepening the Truth Social brand’s ambitions in digital asset investing.
O que saber:
- Yorkville America Equities, the firm behind Truth Social–branded ETFs, has filed with the SEC to launch a Truth Social Bitcoin and Ether ETF and a Truth Social Cronos Yield Maximizer ETF.
- The proposed Cronos-focused ETF would invest in and stake Cronos (CRO) tokens, aiming to generate yield through staking rewards in addition to price exposure.
- If approved, the funds would be launched in partnership with Crypto.com, which would provide custody, liquidity and staking services, and be distributed through its affiliate Foris Capital US LLC.
Top Stories
