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Red September? Bitcoin Risks Sliding to $100K After 6% Monthly Drop
Technical indicators confirm a bearish shift suggested by violation of key price support levels.
Updated Sep 1, 2025, 1:28 p.m. Published Sep 1, 2025, 3:24 a.m.
What to know:
- Bitcoin has breached key support levels, indicating a risk of a slide to $100,000.
- Technical indicators confirm a bearish shift.
- The cryptocurrency fell 6.5% in August, ending a four-month winning streak, as ETFs lost $751 million.
This is a daily analysis by CoinDesk analyst and Chartered Market Technician Omkar Godbole.
Bitcoin has breached key support levels in a sign of increasing bearish momentum that suggests a risk of a slide to $100,000.
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The leading cryptocurrency by market value fell 6.5% in August, ending the four-month winning streak as the U.S.-listed spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) bled $751 million, according to data source SoSoValue.
The recent price drop saw bitcoin break below several key support levels, including the Ichimoku cloud, and the 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs). It also pierced crucial horizontal support zones formed by the May high of $111,965 and the December high of $109,364, according to the daily chart sourced from TradingView.
These breakdowns underscore growing market weakness, confirming a bearish shift in key momentum indicators such as the Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA) and the MACD histogram.
The short-term exponential moving average (EMA) band of the GMMA (green) has crossed below the longer-term band (red), signaling a clear bearish momentum shift. Meanwhile, the weekly MACD histogram has dropped below zero, indicating a transition from a bullish to a bearish trend.
Together, these signals indicate a likelihood of a sustained sell-off, potentially driving the price down to the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $101,366, and possibly to the $100,000 mark.
Bearish seasonality
The negative technical outlook aligns with seasonal trends, which show September historically as a bearish month for bitcoin. Since 2013, BTC has delivered an average return of negative 3.49%, closing lower in eight of the past 12 September months, according to data from Coinglass.
As for bulls, overcoming the lower high of $113,510 set on Aug. 28 is crucial to negating the bearish outlook.
- Support: $105,240 (the 38.2% Fib retracement of the April-August rally), $101,366 (the 200-day SMA), $100,000.
- Resistance: $110,756 (the lower end of the Ichimoku cloud), $113,510 (the lower high), $115,938 (the 50-day SMA).
AI Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk's full AI Policy.
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