Asia Morning Briefing: Miners and Whales Dumping BTC Amid Rally May Signal 'Local Top'

Good Morning, Asia. Here's what's making news in the markets:

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk's Crypto Daybook Americas.

Bitcoin is trading at $117,300 as Asia opens a new business week, just below last week’s all-time high of $123,000. Ethereum ETH$3,125.57 once again is outperforming the world's largest digital asset, holding above $3,700, up 4% in the past 24 hours and 26% over the past week, as capital continues to rotate into higher-beta assets.

The CoinDesk 20 Index stands at 4,071.75, a sign of resilient investor appetite. But new data from CryptoQuant suggests potential turbulence may be forming beneath the surface.

On July 15, Bitcoin exchange inflows surged to 81,000 BTC, the largest daily figure since February. The spike was driven by whales and miners: transfers of 100 BTC or more jumped from 13,000 to 58,000 BTC, while miner outflows hit 16,000 BTC, nearly all of which was deposited directly into exchanges.

Ethereum showed a similar pattern. On July 16, 2 million ETH flowed into exchanges, the highest daily total since late February, following a 131% rally since April.

CryptoQuant also noted a drop in miner wallet balances, from 68,000 BTC to 65,000 BTC since June 26, reinforcing the view that miners used last week’s rally to realize profits.

The confluence of large-holder and miner selling into strength suggests a localized top or a stretch of increased volatility. Historically, inflow spikes of this size have preceded price pullbacks, making this a potential caution flag for traders. While bullish momentum remains intact, the signals are hard to ignore.

Enflux, a Singapore-based market maker, is watching technical indicators closely.

“Liquidity remains healthy, and we’re watching closely for confirmation in perpetual open interest and altcoin depth,” the firm wrote in a recent note to CoinDesk. “If ETH dominance continues to rise, we expect the tailwind for midcaps to extend into next week.”

Meanwhile, altcoin inflows remain muted. Daily altcoin transactions into exchanges sit at just 31,000, far below the 120,000 observed during prior market tops in March and December 2024.

CryptoQuant interprets this as a sign of low selling pressure, suggesting that altcoin holders may have stronger conviction, slower capital rotation, or are simply waiting for a fresh catalyst. For now, BTC and ETH remain the center of attention, but the sidelines may not stay quiet for long.

Market Movements:

BTC: Bitcoin is trading at $117,100 after consolidating in a tight range, with strong institutional activity earlier in the session giving way to a late-day selloff that broke key support near $118,000 and hints at a potential deeper pullback.

ETH: Ethereum is trading up 3.78% as institutional capital pours in and funds rotate out of smaller altcoins, with analysts warning that rising momentum and $331 million in bearish bets could trigger a short squeeze and further accelerate the rally.

Gold: Despite a recent dip, CIBC Capital Markets expects gold to average $3,600 in the second half of 2025, citing global uncertainty, rate cut expectations, and central bank stockpiling as key drivers of further gains.

Nikkei 225: Closed for a public holiday.

Elsewhere in Crypto:

• JPMorgan says regulators outside US appear to prefer tokenized bank deposits over stablecoins (The Block)
• California Sheriffs Believe 74-Year-Old's Disappearance Linked to Son's Crypto Fortune (Decrypt)
• Tether CEO Says He'll Comply With GENIUS to Come to U.S., Circle Says It's Set Now (CoinDesk)