Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin Resilient as Trump's 'Liberation Day' Sets Markets on Edge

By James Van Straten (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

President Trump's so-called Liberation Day has arrived, and markets are nervously awaiting developments on U.S. tariffs. Even within the administration, the mood appears far from optimistic.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnik is reportedly in the crosshairs, with suggestions he may become the scapegoat for favoring overly aggressive tariffs if the U.S. were to head into a recession, according to The Independent, a U.K. online newspaper.

A recession looks likely according to the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model, which is projecting a first-quarter contraction of -3.7% for U.S. real GDP. That is a dramatic downward revision from earlier estimates: +3.9% two months ago, +2.3% one month ago and -1.8% just two weeks ago.

While Trump has yet to disclose which country the tariffs will target, an announcement is scheduled for after the stock market closes at 4 p.m.

Bitcoin BTC$90.494,54, meanwhile, remains unfazed, trading little changed on the day and holding above $85,000. U.S. equities finished higher on Tuesday, although futures are pointing slightly negative heading into Wednesday.

Currently, bitcoin is 25% below its Jan. 20 all-time high of $109,000. This places it in the middle of the performance range of the "Magnificent 7" tech stocks. Here's how they compare to their respective all-time highs: Apple is down 17%, Microsoft 22%, Amazon 24%, Meta 25%, Google 26%, NVIDIA 32% and Tesla 50%.

The cryptocurrency's resilience stands out when compared to past cycles. In 2022, BTC fell 75% from its peak to a low of $15,500, more than twice as much as the Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ)'s 34%. This year, bitcoin has dropped 30% versus 16% for QQQ — a relative drawdown of 1.87 times. This relative performance suggests bitcoin has become more resilient over time, even as volatility remains a defining trait.

Still, a lot hinges on the tariff announcement and how markets react. Stay alert!

What to Watch

• Crypto:
  • April 2, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. House Financial Services Committee hearing for marking up various measures, including H.R. 2392, the Stablecoin Transparency and Accountability for a Better Ledger Economy (STABLE) Act of 2025, and H.R. 1919, the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act. Livestream link.
  • April 2: XIONMarkets (XION) will have its mainnet launch.
  • April 5: The alleged birthday of Satoshi Nakamoto.
  • April 9, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. House Financial Services Committee hearing about how the U.S. securities laws could be updated to take into account digital assets. Livestream link.
• Macro
  • April 2, 8:00 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics releases February industrial production data.
    • Industrial Production MoM Est. 0.5% vs. Prev. 0%
    • Industrial Production YoY Est. 2.3% vs. Prev. 1.4%
  • April 2, 4:00 p.m.: Trump administration’s “Liberation Day” reciprocal tariffs will get announced.
  • April 2, 4:30 p.m.: Fed Governor Adriana D. Kugler will give a speech titled “Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policymaking.” Livestream link.
  • April 3, 12:01 a.m.: The Trump administration’s 25% tariff on imported automobiles and certain parts announced March 26 become effective.
  • April 3, 12:30 p.m.: Fed Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson will give a speech titled “U.S. Economic Outlook and Central Bank Communications.” Livestream link.
  • April 4, 11:25 a.m.: Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell will give a speech titled “Economic Outlook.” Livestream link.
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • No earnings scheduled.

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
  • Yearn DAO is discussing a revised proposal to endorse and fund “Bearn,” a new sub-DAO for building DeFi products including a yield-backed stablecoin and a BGT liquid locker. The proposal seeks $200,000 for audit costs and $1 million in locked liquidity, offering 5% of BEARN tokens to the Yearn Treasury in return.
  • Lido DAO is discussing the re-endorsement of wstETH on Starknet as the canonical bridge endpoint following a completed migration from the legacy token.
  • April 2, 11 p.m.: Axie Infinity to host Atia’s Legacy Town Hall on the project co-founders’ vision for the forthcoming massive multiplayer online game.
  • April 2, 10 a.m.: The Graph to host a token API talk.
  • April 3, 9 a.m.: SafePal, Wallet Connect and Trader to host a monthly community livestream discussing monthly updates for the projects.
  • April 3, 2p.m.: Arbitrum to host an X Spaces session on real-world assets on Arbitrum.
  • April 3, 12 p.m.: Seamless Protocol, Morpho Labs and Gauntlet to host an Ask Me Anything (AMA) session.
  • April 7, 4 p.m.: Livepeer to host a monthly community call focused on governance, funding and the strategic direction of its on-chain treasury.
• Unlocks
  • April 3: W$0.04045 to unlock 47.64% of its circulating supply worth $104.38 million.
  • April 5: ENA$0.2782 to unlock 3.25% of its circulating supply worth $61.86 million.
  • April 7: KAS$0.05092 to unlock 0.59% of its circulating supply worth $10.29 million.
  • April 9: MOVE$0.04043 to unlock 2.04% of its circulating supply worth $20.10 million.
  • April 12: APT$1,8855 to unlock 1.87% of its circulating supply worth $59.94 million.
• Token Listings
  • April 4: Pintu (PTU), Spartan Protocol (SPARTA), Derby Stars (DSRUN), VEXT$0.0₃3137, BOB, and SEILOR$0.0₃2492 to be deslisted from Bybit.

Conferences

• CoinDesk's Consensus is taking place in Toronto on May 14-16. Use code DAYBOOK and save 15% on passes.
  
• Day 1 of 2: Southeast Asia Blockchain Week 2025 Main Conference (Bangkok)
• Day 1 of 4: ETH Bucharest Conference & Hackathon (Romania)
• April 3-6: BitBlockBoom (Dallas)
• April 6-9: Hong Kong Web3 Festival
• April 8-10: Paris Blockchain Week
• April 10: Bitcoin Educators Unconference (Nashville)
• April 15-16: BUIDL Asia 2025 (Seoul)

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

• President Donald Trump's TRUMP memecoin is set to unlock 40 million tokens — or 20% of the circulating supply — on April 17, according to Solana Floor.
• Token unlocks often lead to short-term price drops due to increased supply, as seen with other cryptocurrencies such as APT$1,7910, which fell 26% in 30 days after a June 2024 unlock.
• A similar pattern could emerge for TRUMP, which is currently priced just above $10.
• Memecoins can see higher selling pressure than utility projects because they rely heavily on sentiment, in this case to Trump’s political brand.
• However, if the president's political influence continues to drive hype — potentially amplified by developments like Trump Media ETFs — the token might see buying activity after the unlock.
• That means investors looking to bet on TRUMP are likely to keep an eye on his public comments and statements about the memecoin specifically around the unlock date.

Derivatives Positioning

• Market stability failed to inspire bullish positioning, leaving perpetual funding rates for major tokens, including BTC and ETH, barely positive near annualized rates of 1% to 3%.
• Most major coins are exhibiting negative cumulative volume deltas, a sign of net selling pressure, casting a doubt on how long the market stability can last.
• In Deribit's options market, BTC volatility smiles have shifted sharply toward lower strike put options, reaching levels not seen since the U.S. regional banking crisis of March 2023, according to data tracked by Block Scholes.
• Ether options are also exhibiting put skews.

Market Movements

• BTC is down 0.21% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $85,063.12 (24hrs: +1.19%)
• ETH is down 1.75% at $1,879.84 (24hrs: +0.48%)
• CoinDesk 20 is down 0.56% at 2,559.88 (24hrs: -0.07%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 7 bps at 3.1%
• BTC funding rate is at 0.0027% (2.9685% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is down 0.13% at 104.12
• Gold is up 1.4% at $3,162.70/oz
• Silver is up 1.79% at $34.77/oz
• Nikkei 225 closed +0.28% at 35,725.87
• Hang Seng closed unchanged at 23,202.53
• FTSE is down 0.57% at 8,585.55
• Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.47% at 5,295.55
• DJIA closed on Tuesday unchanged at 41,989.96
• S&P 500 closed +0.38% at 5,633.07
• Nasdaq closed +0.87% at 17,449.89
• S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +0.46% at 25,033.30
• S&P 40 Latin America closed +1.44% at 2,440.93
• U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is down 2 bps at 4.16%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.3% at 5,657.50
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.37% at 19,531.50
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.24% at 42,138.00

Bitcoin Stats:

• BTC Dominance: 62.68 (0.21%)
• Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02211 (-1.16%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 819 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $47.62
• Total Fees: 4.35 BTC / $366,246
• CME Futures Open Interest: 135,350 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 27.0 oz
• BTC vs gold market cap: 7.66%

Technical Analysis

• The chart shows the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies excluding market leaders bitcoin and ether.
• The value is holding on to a bullish trendline sloping upward from August and November lows.
• A strong bounce from the trendline would signal a resumption of the broader rally.

Crypto Equities

• Strategy (MSTR): closed on Tuesday at $306.02 (+6.16%), down 1.31% at $302in pre-market
• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $174.52 (1.33%), down 0.88% at $172.99
• Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$16.33 (+7.65%)
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $11.84 (+2.96%), down 1.01% at $11.72
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $7.54 (+5.9%), down 1.33% at $7.44
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $8 (+10.5%), down 0.63% at $7.95
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $7.56 (+12.5%), down 1.46% at $7.45
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $13.67 (+7.05%), down 2.51% at $12.80
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $36.52 (+0.88%)
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $45.63 (-0.24%), up 2.98% at $46.99

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

• Daily net flow: -$157.8 million
• Cumulative net flows: $36.11 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~ 1.12 million.

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flow: -$3.6 million
• Cumulative net flows: $2.42 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~ 3.41 million.

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

• The chart shows technology stocks have fallen out of favor over the past four weeks.
• That helps explain the weakness in the crypto market.

While You Were Sleeping

• Bitcoin Slides 1% as Goldman Picks Yen Over BTC Amid Tariff Fears (CoinDesk): The bitcoin-yen trading pair slipped after hitting key trendline resistance as Goldman Sachs named the Japanese currency a top hedge against growing U.S. tariff and recession risks.
• U.S. Reaffirms Commitment to Taiwan as Beijing Conducts Live Fire Drills in East China Sea (CNBC): On day two of its drills, China’s military simulated precision strikes on port and energy targets under an exercise called “Strait Thunder-2025 A,” according to a senior officer.
• Bitcoin May Have Hit Bottom After Its 30% Fall From All-Time High (CoinDesk): Bitcoin may see bullish momentum if history repeats, echoing patterns from the U.S. spot ETF launch and August’s yen carry trade unwind.
• SEC, Gemini Request Two-Month Pause in Lawsuit as 'Potential Resolution' in the Works (CoinDesk): The two asked a New York court to pause the lawsuit over Gemini’s Earn product as they explore a possible resolution after prolonged legal proceedings.
• U.S. Officials Object to European Push to Buy Weapons Locally (Reuters): In a closed-door meeting, Secretary of State Marco Rubio reportedly told Baltic officials that Washington would view U.S. defense firms’ exclusion from European contracts unfavorably.

In the Ether