Bitcoin isn’t under quantum threat yet, but upgrade could take 5-10 years

Some Bitcoin developers are no longer arguing about whether quantum computing will break the network, but letting onlookers know how long it would take to prepare if it ever did.

That shift was crystallized this week by longtime Bitcoin developer Jameson Lopp, who said that while quantum computers are unlikely to threaten Bitcoin anytime soon, any meaningful defensive changes could take much longer than many assume.

"No, quantum computers won't break Bitcoin in the near future," Lopp posted. "We'll keep observing their evolution. Yet, making thoughtful changes to the protocol (and an unprecedented migration of funds) could easily take 5 to 10 years."

The discussion matters because Bitcoin’s value increasingly depends on long-term confidence. As more institutional capital treats bitcoin as a multi-year holding, even distant technical risks can influence allocation decisions and shape how markets price uncertainty, as CoinDesk reported on Saturday.

Lopp’s point was less about whether Bitcoin survives quantum computing, and more about how much time the network would actually need if it ever had to respond.

His comment reframed the debate away from immediacy and toward logistics. Even if quantum machines capable of breaking Bitcoin’s cryptography are decades away, the work required to update software, infrastructure and user behavior would be measured in years, not months.

And that’s a significant amount of time for quantum computing research, funding and hardware capabilities to advance in ways that could compress timelines faster than expected.

Bitcoin relies on elliptic curve cryptography to secure wallets and authorize transactions. In theory, sufficiently powerful quantum computers running Shor’s algorithm could derive private keys from exposed public keys, putting older address formats at risk.

The network would not collapse overnight, but coins that have already revealed their public keys could become vulnerable.

Bitcoin changes take time

Bitcoin’s conservative governance model — one of its core strengths — also makes large-scale transitions difficult.

Any move toward quantum-resistant cryptography would require new address formats, wallet upgrades, exchange support and, crucially, user action. Billions of dollars’ worth of bitcoin would need to be voluntarily moved.

That reality helps explain why some investors remain uneasy. Large allocators do not need quantum computers to exist tomorrow to care about the issue today.

For institutions holding bitcoin as a long-duration asset, the question is whether the network can coordinate major changes before they are forced.

Proposals such as BIP-360 aim to address that gap by introducing quantum-resistant address types and allowing a gradual transition over time. But no timeline has been set, and no migration has begun.

For now, quantum risk remains theoretical. Lopp’s point is not that Bitcoin is in danger — it is that preparation, if it ever becomes necessary, will take longer than the debate itself.