Bitcoin Will Rally as U.S. Growth Improves, Crypto Bills Progress: Coinbase Research

A more upbeat macroeconomic backdrop, growing corporate appetite for digital assets, and increased regulatory clarity will fuel a constructive outlook for crypto markets in the second half of 2025, according to a report by Coinbase Research.

After a bumpy first quarter marked by a brief contraction in U.S. GDP and trade disruptions, data now point to stronger growth. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker has jumped to 3.8% QoQ as of early June, a sharp upgrade from earlier in the year. This shift, alongside expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and a less aggressive trade policy, has eased recession fears and strengthened investor sentiment.

Declining dollar dominance and inflation protection use-cases may also boost bitcoin’s BTC$89,741.21 appeal, even if long-dated U.S. Treasury yields remain elevated, the report said. Altcoins may lag unless they benefit from specific catalysts, such as ETF approvals or protocol developments.

Meanwhile, public companies are increasingly adding crypto to their balance sheets, aided by a 2024 rule change allowing "mark-to-market" accounting for digital assets. While this trend is expanding demand, it’s also introducing new systemic risks. Firms that fund crypto buys with convertible debt may be forced to sell if refinancing options dry up or prices fall sharply.

Regulatory clarity

Regulatory developments are also expected to reshape the market, the report said.

The Senate recently passed the GENIUS Act, a bipartisan stablecoin bill now heading to the House. A broader market structure bill, the CLARITY Act, aims to define the roles of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in overseeing digital assets. If passed, it could clarify rules for both issuers and investors.

Separately, the SEC is considering more than 80 crypto ETF applications, including multi-asset funds and proposals involving staking and altcoins. Some rulings could be made as early as July, and the rest are likely to be finalized by October.

Overall, bitcoin appears poised to benefit from both macro and structural tailwinds in the second half of the year, while the outlook for altcoins will depend on navigating a more complex and still-evolving regulatory and liquidity environment, according to the report.