First Mover Americas: Bitcoin Fails to Hold $63K, May Remain Range-Bound

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Bitcoin BTC$86,964.71 rose during the European morning on Monday, peaking at around $63,200, before retreating below $62,800. BTC may be again trying to rally above $64,000, of which there have been numerous instances this month, all of which have been sold off. This behavior, along with transaction numbers plummeting, points toward a consolidation in the market and the possibility of bitcoin being range-bound for the time being. At the time of writing, bitcoin is 2.34% higher in the last 24 hours at $62,543. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), which measures the broader digital market, has added 1.1%, with the likes of ETH and SOL showing more modest gains, trading just below $3,000 and $150 respectively.

Bitcoin's price action since it attained new all-time highs in March has been characterized by lower lows and lower highs as a shift toward selling has taken hold in the market thanks to long- and short-term holders alike being in profit. “A failure below $60K could trigger something of a panic sell-off," FxPro trader Alex Kuptsikevich told CoinDesk in a note. "The positive scenario, in our opinion, will become the main one with a rise above $65K, fixing the price at the 50-day moving average and the reversal area in early May." He added that downward pressure is likely related to asset sell-offs by miners and concerns over tighter regulation of cryptocurrencies.

Japanese investment and consulting firm Metaplanet has adopted bitcoin as a reserve asset to hedge against the country's debt burden and yen volatility. Metaplanet has acquired 117.7 BTC ($7.35 million) since April, imitating the strategy of MicroStrategy in the U.S. The ratio between Japan's gross debt and GDP currently exceeds 254%, the highest in the advanced world, according to data tracked by the IMF. For comparison, the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio has exceeded 123%. The yen has depreciated by 50% against the U.S. dollar since early 2021. "As the yen continues to weaken, Bitcoin offers a non-sovereign store of value that has, and may continue, to appreciate against traditional fiat currencies," Metaplanet said.

Chart of the Day

• The chart shows the percentage change in the U.S. M2 from a year ago.
• M2 measures the money supply, including cash, checking deposits and other deposits readily convertible to cash.
• The M2 growth rate flipped positive in April, a positive sign for risk assets.
• "Simple rule ... liquidity leads risk assets," James Thorne, chief market strategist at Wellington-Altus Private Wealth, said.
• Source: fred.stlouisfed.org

- Omkar Godbole

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