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Bitcoin Continues to Ride Area of Support; Volatility Still Low
Technical and on-chain indicators signal range-bound trading for the time being.
Updated Oct 21, 2022, 7:21 p.m. Published Oct 21, 2022, 7:05 p.m.
Not much has changed for bitcoin in the most recent seven days, or the most recent three months for that matter. BTC prices remain range-bound and, at just south of $20,000, is trading almost identically to its June price level.
One of the more interesting themes for bitcoin in 2022 has been the lack of volatility in overall BTC daily price movement.
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The price is down approximately 3% for October, having opened the month at $19,400 compared with its current $19,100.
BTC appears to be firmly entrenched along a line of support, with little impetus to break outside the range in either direction. Using the Volume Profile Visible Range (VPVR) tool to measure BTC trading volume by price illustrates this.
Measuring from the beginning of 2022 highlights a “high volume node” (indicating an area of significant price agreement), at the $19,300 level.
Incorporating VPVR with BTC’s Bollinger Bands shows additional areas of high agreement at prices that coincide with bitcoin’s upper and lower bands. Bollinger bands are a technical indicator that measure an asset’s moving average (often the 20-day) and calculates two standard deviations above and below that price.
BTC now appears poised to continue trading in a range between approximately $18,600 and $20,200. A slight bullish divergence appears to be forming as momentum has recently accelerated at a faster pace than price.
Signals to monitor would be a bullish crossing of the 10-day moving average (currently $19,200) above the 50-day moving average ($19,800), but conditions don’t seem ripe for that at the moment.
On-chain data offers a few rays of hope for BTC holders, but the evidence remains scant.
On the one hand, the BTC Miners’ Position index, calculating the ratio of miner outflows to its one-year moving average, has been decreasing. Declines in the amount of BTC sold by miners can be bullish for BTC prices, as it results in less selling pressure overall.
Meanwhile, the net position change for miners over the last 30 days has been declining, and has been negative since August.
An interpretation of BTC miners’ net position change being negative is that those entities may be selling because of a negative outlook on price. A silver lining is the extent to which the net position change has improved since August, implying a potential shift in sentiment
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